Overview
This final is very evenly-matched, with little to choose between the teams going into it.
It might sound like a cliché but it really is a 50-50 game. In recent ties, Kilkenny may have gone in as overwhelming favourites but even the bookies are struggling to separate them now, with both teams on offer at 11/10.
There are so many similarities between the teams and their form-lines are pretty similar too.
Kilkenny were a little rusty in their drawn semi-final against Waterford but bounced back with a strong performance in the replay, while Tipp showed signs of rustiness in their narrow victory over Galway.
They just about managed to squeeze through, thanks in main to some clinical finishing when it was really needed, and this is set up to be a cracking final between two teams that know each other so well.
How will they line up?
I’d see just the one change for Tipperary from the semi-final. I’m expecting John ‘Bubbles’ O’Dwyer to start in place of Niall O’Meara, in a straight swap.
I doubt that John will play the full game in the corner but I wouldn’t be surprised either if Michael Ryan decides to hold him in reserve.
I just feel that ‘Bubbles’ is a player that will need Shane Prendergast’s full attention.
Prendergast may feel the need to pitch in alongside Joey Holden, who will have his hands full with Seamus Callanan in a direct match-up, and that may just provide ‘Bubbles’ with the space he needs.
The presence of ‘Bubbles’ in there also provides Tipp with an added scoring threat. There’s plenty of ball-winning ability with Dan McCormack and Patrick ‘Bonner’ Maher in the half-forward line, and John McGrath is good too in this regard.
But Tipp need a better output from their forwards against Kilkenny, as four of the six starting attackers failed to score from play in the Galway game.
On the Kilkenny side, the big issue is Michael Fennelly’s loss and how they’re going to cope with that.
That may leave the door open for Kieran Joyce to return to centre back, with Conor Fogarty moving back to midfield.
Brian Cody used Richie Hogan and TJ Reid at midfield against Waterford but I don’t expect both to start there again.
I would think that Hogan will start at centre forward, on Ronan Maher, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Reid lines out alongside Fogarty at midfield.
Centre backs are not typically the tightest of man-markers and Richie can cause a lot of damage to Tipperary by drifting out the field.
In my column after the drawn Kilkenny-Waterford game, I discussed just how much of a conundrum a roving centre-forward is for opposition defences.
Do you stick or twist? Do you ask your centre back to go with his man and potentially leave a hole in behind for quick ball into the full-forward line, or do you ask one of your midfielders to pick up a player like Hogan when he drifts out to the middle? It’s certainly food for thought for Michael Ryan.
We’ve seen many times this year how teams are picking players in that number 11 position, who can roam and orchestrate play.
The temptation, then, from a Tipperary point of view is to consider Noel McGrath in the number 11 role. Noel might occupy that position at various stages but I don’t think he’ll start there.
Patrick ‘Bonner’ Maher, a player I’ve discussed after the Limerick game, again following the Munster final, and once more following the defeat of Galway, is playing too well in that position.
I don’t think Tipp’s half-forward line shape will change too much. It’s centred around work ethic and ball play, and the balance is really nice.
That line contains work-rate, physicality, intensity and a touch of finesse, with Dan McCormack at 10, ‘Bonner’ at number 11 and Noel in the number 12 shirt.
Noel’s scoring rate is very strong and while there’s a case for moving ‘Bonner’ onto Pádraig Walsh, a move that worked well in 2010 final when ‘Bonner’ nullified Tommy Walsh, I believe Tipp will trust their own side first and foremost.
They’ll have enough confidence in themselves to dictate the terms early on and will probably go with their normal positional line-up.
However, you can be sure that Michael Ryan will have plans in place if certain players are influencing the game, particularly the likes of Walsh, Hogan or Paul Murphy.
Murphy has the ability to hugely influence a game from corner back, as previously discussed here, and that’s something that Tipp will have noticed as well.
He’s likely to pick up John McGrath and that’s a very interesting duel straight away. It’s a match-up that pits Tipperary’s most effective forward this summer against Kilkenny’s most influential defender.
Then there is the Callanan factor and all that goes with that but Kilkenny haven’t really used Murphy in the full-back position and it seems that Holden will pick up Callanan, with Prendergast handed the job of marking ‘Bubbles’, who’s an absolutely class act with ball in hand.
His finishing is impeccable and Kilkenny know they can’t stand off players like him or he’ll do damage.
Returning to the Kilkenny line-up, it’s difficult to get a handle on how they will line up positionally but I would suspect that they will possibly target the likes of Cathal Barrett, who looked a little bit vulnerable under the high ball in the Galway game.
Walter Walsh could be the option here for Kilkenny. He’s familiar with that corner forward position, although he has been showing very good form in the half-forward line. Eoin Larkin is a very strong player and could play on Barrett too but one thing is for sure – we can expect a lot of high ball into the Tipperary full-back line, and into both corners.
Leadership
A lot comes down to how your big players perform on the day. Kilkenny will be looking to the likes of Hogan and Reid, who will be very important for them.
Tipp will look to curtail them and their influence on the game. Again, the question for Tipp to consider is whether they man-mark the two and if so, who picks them up?
Tipp and Kilkenny don’t generally detail man-markers too much, preferring instead to let their players play and hold their positions but that may change, depending on how the game evolves.
The midfield battle will be crucial and this is where Michael Breen’s presence for Tipperary could be felt.
He’s been one of Tipp’s best performers all year and a huge addition to the starting team.
He’s a bolter but hasn’t exactly come out of nowhere. Michael has been knocking around the panel for a couple of years but more renowned for his defensive work.
I don’t think anybody could really have predicted how big an impact he would make at midfield but he has so many strengths to his game that are tailor-made for the position.
Michael has an ability to get forward, he’s physical and he’s direct in his running, which brings something new to this sector.
You wouldn’t associate those traits with Brendan Maher, who’s more content to sit a little deeper, and previous midfield duo Shane McGrath and James Woodlock.
Woodlock was a good runner with the ball but didn’t have the same physical presence as Michael Breen.
As we’ve seen with Kilkenny’s Michael Fennelly, having a player with that presence can give a team a really good platform and help to dictate the game in your favour.
His influence is vital but he’s still a very young and inexperienced player preparing for his first All-Ireland final. It’s a huge occasion for him but hopefully he’ll stand up an play his normal game.
It will be very interesting to see how Kilkenny detail to pick him up. You might see someone like Lester Ryan in there, and asked to sacrifice some of his own game to stop Breen breaking forward so much. It’s hard to see Michael getting the same sort of freedom as in previous games but I don’t think Lester will start.
Puck-out strategies
Both goalkeepers are excellent strikers and can find their men but I don’t think they’ll get the opportunities to play too many high-risk balls.
Instead, I think you’ll see plenty of contested puck-outs as the respective half-backs and half-forwards battle it out.
Both teams have men good enough in their half-forward divisions to genuinely contest these aerial deliveries and there’s no getting away from the fact that how you perform on your own puck-outs, and the opposition’s, has a huge bearing on the trend of the game.
Whatever format the puck-outs take, the end result from either team is going to be a huge factor.
You can expect to see some serious tussles for possession from breaking balls on the puck-outs, with both teams placing a huge emphasis on this.
You won’t see too many short ones, neither team will play an extra defender for a start, and consequently there’s no extra defender to hit with puck-outs.
Making the most of your opportunities
Winning All-Ireland finals comes down to taking your chances.
The scoring returns from both sets of forwards will obviously be a big factor and from a Tipp perspective, they’ll need more from play than the Galway game.
Having four players scoreless from play in the forward line, in an All-Ireland final, is not the sort of statistic that will see Tipperary winning the game.
You can expect to see John McGrath very tightly marked and the onus is on Seamus Callanan to come up with a big game from play in this match.
If ‘Bubbles’ starts, this gives Tipp scope for improvement from scoring returns, but the flip-side of that is you don’t have the same impact off the bench in terms of a scoring forward.
Kilkenny’s forwards were moving very nicely against Waterford. Colin Fennelly is in serious good form and will present a fairly formidable opponent to James Barry.
Liam Blanchfield is the Kilkenny bolter and Walter Walsh is having a very good season. Then you have TJ and Richie, which means that Kilkenny still have plenty of scoring threat.
Our backs are really going to have be on their toes from the word go, and they can also expect a huge, physical challenge from the Kilkenny forwards.
Kilkenny will also run at the Tipp backs in a big way, at Ronan Maher and Seamus Kennedy in particular, and also go heavy on our corner backs.
Everybody understands the impact of guys coming in off the bench and in a game of this intensity, the use of substitutes will prove crucial.
From early in the second half, Cody and Ryan will be thinking of switches, to keep things fresh and the intensity levels consistent.
One of the criticisms aimed at Kilkenny after the drawn match against Waterford was that they didn’t have too many players to make a difference but we found out in the replay that they actually do.
Where there were questions marks over their bench, the view now is that they actually have players who can make a difference off the bench – Mark Bergin, Liam Blanchfield, Lester Ryan, and Kieran Joyce back in the fray. They have plenty of strong options and Jackie Tyrrell is sitting on the bench as well.
Tipp have the bit of experience with Kieran Bergin while Jason Forde has been on the fringes for a few years. Then there’s one from Niall O’Meara and John O’Dwyer. Whoever doesn’t start is likely to come in and play a part.
Conclusion
As I’ve stated, it’s very difficult to predict how this game is going to pan out, other than I would expect a game of huge intensity and commitment.
The best games between these two in recent times have been laced with those characteristics, with both teams finding a lovely balance between massive physical intensity, talent and skill.
I expect the same again, both are two very fine games and capable of playing the game from a physical viewpoint and in terms of out and out hurling.
I’m expecting a really terrific game, as I’m sure you are.
Here are my predicted starting 15s:
Tipperary
Darren Gleeson; Cathal Barrett, James Barry, Michael Cahill; Seamus Kennedy, Ronan Maher, Pádraic Maher; Brendan Maher, Michael Breen; Dan McCormack, Patrick Maher, Noel McGrath; John O’Dwyer, Seamus Callanan, John McGrath.
Kilkenny
Eoin Murphy; Paul Murphy, Joey Holden, Shane Prendergast; Pádraig Walsh, Kieran Joyce, Cillian Buckley; Conor Fogarty, TJ Reid; Walter Walsh, Richie Hogan, Eoin Larkin; Jonjo Farrell, Colin Fennelly, Liam Blanchfield.
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