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Ulster seek back-to-back wins over Leinster. Bryan Keane/INPHO
URC

Opportunity knocks for Ulster - victory tonight could define their season

The bulk of Leinster’s first-choice XV is in Twickenham – leaving the door open for Ulster to secure a double over their rivals.

IF NOT NOW, then when will it happen for Ulster? If they can’t win a must-win game when their rivals are travelling with a de-facto B Team, then can they be trusted to repeat the trick later in the season?

Undoubtedly they’d prefer to be coming into a game like this with their captain, Iain Henderson, the much improved James Hume, the underrated Rob Herring.

But look at who they have. Robert Baloucoune, Mike Lowry and Nick Timoney have all come back from Ireland camp, saying goodbye to Cian Healy, Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong, Ryan Baird, James Ryan, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris, Jack Conan, Jamison Gibson-Park, Johnny Sexton, Robbie Henshaw, Garry Ringrose, James Lowe, Hugo Keenan.

Now that’s an impressive looking Leinster line-up, 13 of them considered good enough to take on England today. If that was the team Ulster had to navigate a path around this evening then you’d worry for them, you’d excuse a gallant effort in defeat, another one to add to a lengthy list.

But it’s a different Leinster they face (7.35pm kick-off, TG4, Premier Sports). There’s still quality – 11 Ireland internationals including three grand slam winners – in their travelling squad, yet we can’t pretend it’s their A-Listers. No, those guys are in Twickenham. Tonight, a door marked opportunity is wide open for Ulster to go through.

They have been playing well recently, Baloucoune scoring four tries in recent games against Connacht and Cardiff. Interestingly Nathan Doak hangs onto the No9 shirt despite John Cooney’s reappearance while the presence of one Australian lock reminds you of the absence of another.

nathan-doak-kicks-a-conversion Doak has been picked ahead of Cooney. Bryan Keane / INPHO Bryan Keane / INPHO / INPHO

Time after time, when November, February and March came around, Scott Fardy kept on showing up for Leinster, doing unglamorous jobs in unglamorous grounds on the Friday and Saturday nights when the world wasn’t watching.

They don’t seem the same without him. Throw in the fact that Devin Toner and Sean Cronin are that critical year older and it’s increasingly easier to make a case for Ulster.

And yet, and yet, we’ve said this before. A year ago it was a similar enough story. Again, Leinster were down a few big names, again Ulster needed a win. For a while they even looked like getting it. But they found a way to lose.

This time they can’t afford to. Four points adrift of the champions, they have just five games after tonight to close that gap. Quite frankly they won’t if they lose, not when you look at their run-in, trips to the Stormers, Bulls and play-off rivals Edinburgh, home games against Munster and Sharks.

Every point counts, every point pushing title-chasing sides closer to home advantage for a quarter-final or even more significantly, a semi-final. Leinster have enough quality, know-how and mettle to go on the road and win. Would you trust Ulster to do the same in a semi-final? While they did so relatively recently in Edinburgh, you wouldn’t be so confident of them doing so again if the RDS or Thomond Park was the venue, irrespective of what happened in November when Hume sealed a first win since 2013 in Dublin.

“The confidence of being able to beat Leinster and doing it down there, that counts,” said Carter earlier this week. “They will want to be proving something by coming up here and showing what they are made of.”

For sure but Ulster have the benefit of cohesion and a noisy crowd to cheer them on. Despite repeatedly striking the right tone with their words about Leinster this week – Dan Soper describing their rivals as ‘the standard setters’ they’ll know this is their chance. And they need to take it because a better one won’t be quick coming around.

 Leinster: Jimmy O’Brien,  Adam Byrne, Rory O’Loughlin, Jamie Osborne, Tommy O’Brien, Ross Byrne, Luke McGrath (CAPT), Ed Byrne, James Tracy, Michael Ala’alatoa, Ross Molony, Joe McCarthy, Rhys Ruddock, Scott Penny, Max Deegan

Replacements: Seán Cronin, Peter Dooley, Thomas Clarkson, Devin Toner, Dan Leavy, Nick McCarthy, David Hawkshaw, Martin Moloney

Ulster: Mike Lowry, Robert Baloucoune, Stewart Moore, Stuart McCloskey, Craig Gilroy, Billy Burns, Nathan Doak, Andrew Warwick, John Andrew, Marty Moore, Alan O’Connor (CAPT), Sam Carter, Marcus Rea, Nick Timoney, Duane Vermeulen

Replacements: Tom Stewart, Eric O’Sullivan, Gareth Milasinovich, Mick Kearney, Jordi Murphy, John Cooney, Ian Madigan, Ben Moxham

Referee: Frank Murphy (IRFU)

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