Leinster’s Luke McGrath and Sam Crean of Ulster. Dan Sheridan/INPHO

Ulster can seize opportunity to break losing run against Leinster

Leo Cullen’s team have won the last four games between the two provinces.

ULSTER AND LEINSTER have taken two decidedly different approaches with their team selections for tonight’s URC meeting at Affidea Stadium [KO 7.45pm, Premier Sports].

Both sides are still fighting on two fronts this season. Ulster head into tonight’s game third in the URC table, one point clear of fourth-place Leinster. The northern province also have a home Challenge Cup semi-final against Exeter Chiefs to look forward to on Saturday, 2 May, the same day Leinster host Toulon in the last four of the Champions Cup.

Leinster’s team that day will look markedly different to the one they field in Belfast tonight, where Hugo Keenan, Garry Ringrose and James Ryan are the only survivors from the starting team which lined out against Sale Sharks last weekend.

It means a weekend off for the likes of Dan Sheehan, Tadhg Furlong, Jamison Gibson-Park, Jamie Osborne, Tommy O’Brien, Rieko Ioane and Jack Conan– key men who will be restored when European Cup rugby rolls back around next month.

james-ryan-is-tackeled-by-asher-opoku-fordjour James Ryan captains Leinster tonight. Dan Clohessy / INPHO Dan Clohessy / INPHO / INPHO

Ulster, on the other hand, have made just one swap, with Sean Reffell coming in ahead of the injured Nick Timoney in the back row.

Richie Murphy’s side should see this as a great opportunity to lock in their top-four status.

Timoney is a loss, but the home side are close to full strength and go into this game in a strong position. Last weekend’s confident showing in difficult conditions against La Rochelle was an impressive outing after a slight dip in form – Ulster losing at home to Connacht before a somewhat fortunate Challenge Cup defeat of Ospreys.

If that stands as Ulster’s rocky patch, there won’t any complaints from supporters, who are really enjoying watching their team again.

That Connacht loss stands as Ulster’s only home defeat this season. That in itself is a snapshot of the progress that has been made – last season, Leinster, Bordeaux, Munster, Zebre, the Stormers and the Sharks all won in Belfast – and why Ulster should be aiming high heading into the home stretch.

Granted, their run-in is a testing one. After tonight Ulster travel to play Munster before home games against the Stormers and Glasgow – who go into this weekend as the league’s top two sides.

Beating Leinster would be another statement of Ulster’s intent. There was a time Ulster were seen as Leinster’s bogey team – beating Leo Cullen’s men twice in the 2021/22 and 2023/24 seasons. Yet they go into tonight having lost their last four against Leinster – the most recent of which saw the eastern province overcome a 10-point half-time deficit to win 24-20 in Dublin in December. 

Stuart McCloskey has been generating most of the headlines this season, but a host of Ulster players are delivering some of the best rugby of their careers. Nathan Doak has taken his game to a new level, steering the team excellently as the wind and rain battered Belfast last Friday. Zac Ward has been outstanding on the wing, and while brother Bryn might feel unlucky to start on the bench tonight, his impact as a replacement was telling against La Rochelle.

Werner Kok is at the other end of the scale in terms of experience, but the 33-year-old is showing no signs of slowing down. A firm fan favourite who has loved his time in Belfast, the South African is still unsure if he will be an Ulster player next season.

werner-kok-takes-a-selfie-with-a-fan-after-the-match Werner Kok is a huge fan favourite in Belfast. Laszlo Geczo / INPHO Laszlo Geczo / INPHO / INPHO

Ulster’s biggest test here might be handling a much-changed Leinster backline which is still littered with internationals.

Yet the rate of Leinster’s rotation adds to their challenge. While many of the combinations selected are familiar ones, there can be no guarantee it will all run smoothly. There’s a reason coaches talk so much about cohesion.

And this isn’t just players slotting in for tonight. Some will be determined to catch the eye with that semi-final date with Toulon in mind.

Robbie Henshaw is still trying to get back to his best after a frustrating time with injury, while Sam Prendergast knows there is only a small window in which to make his case. The 23-year-old went from being Ireland’s starting out-half in the early rounds of the Six Nations to not even making Leinster’s squad over the last two weekends. He needs to attack tonight with confidence if he’s to change that picture for Toulon in two weeks’ time.

Some of Cullen’s changes are enforced – Josh van der Flier, Ryan Baird and Alex Usanov were all injured last week – but resting so many frontliners leaves Leinster a little light in some areas, and Cullen’s squad is now paper-thin at loosehead as injuries pile up. Jerry Cahir – signed up from the AIL on short-term deal earlier this season, starts just his fourth game and is covered on the bench by Ed Byrne, who re-signed from Cardiff as short-term cover this week.

If any province can handle a few injuries, it’s Leinster, but even they are getting stretched now. Next weekend Leinster play Benetton (away), and after Toulon they return to the URC with home games against the Lions and Ospreys.

It’s a more forgiving schedule than the one Ulster face, but for either side a win tonight will ensure confidence remains high heading into the crunch part of the season.

ULSTER: Jacob Stockdale; Werner Kok, James Hume, Stuart McCloskey, Zac Ward; Jack Murphy, Nathan Doak; Angus Bell, Tom Stewart, Tom O’Toole; Iain Henderson (capt), Cormac Izuchukwu; David McCann, Sean Reffell, Juarno Augustus.

Replacements: James McCormick, Sam Crean, Scott Wilson, Harry Sheridan, Bryn Ward, Conor McKee, Jake Flannery, Jude Postlethwaite.

LEINSTER: Hugo Keenan; Joshua Kenny, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, Jimmy O’Brien; Sam Prendergast, Luke McGrath; Jerry Cahir, Rónan Kelleher, Thomas Clarkson; Brian Deeny, James Ryan (capt); Alex Soroka, Scott Penny, James Culhane.

Replacements: Gus McCarthy, Ed Byrne, Rabah Slimani, Conor O’Tighearnaigh, Max Deegan, Will Connors, Fintan Gunne, Ciarán Frawley.

Referee: Andrew Brace [IRFU]

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