AS WE ENTER the final two regular-season weekends of the URC, only 12 points separate the league-leading Stormers and Connacht in ninth.
Here’s how things are shaping up for the four provinces ahead of their respective run-ins.
URC Table
Leinster
To some degree, the reigning champions’ prospects of securing home advantage as far as the semi-final stage lay in the hands of Ulster. While Leinster (53 PTS), currently fourth, would leapfrog the Lions (53 PTS) into third with victory over the South Africans at the Aviva Stadium this Saturday, current top two Stormers (56 PTS) and Glasgow (55 PTS) each face a tricky trip to Affidea Stadium in the final two rounds.
Andrew Porter and Josh van der Flier celebrating Leinster's URC success last season. James Crombie / INPHO
James Crombie / INPHO / INPHO
Leinster will surely rotate their squad to some degree against the Lions in Round 15 and at home again to Ospreys in Round 16 — which is a week out from their Champions Cup final in Bilbao — but they will still expect to win both fixtures.
All going to plan on that front, an Ulster victory against either the Stormers this Friday night or against Glasgow on the last weekend would open the door for Leinster to move into the top two and secure home advantage as far as a potential URC final. (It’s worth noting, though, that if the Stormers were to pick up two bonus points in defeat to Ulster, their points difference — superior by 99 — would most likely keep them ahead of Leinster heading into Round 16.
Second-placed Glasgow, meanwhile, who were knocked out of the Champions Cup by Toulon last month and went on to suffer two heavy URC defeats in South Africa, host play-off-chasing Cardiff on Friday in a game with significant implications for Ulster and Connacht in particular.
Remaining fixtures: Lions (H), Ospreys (H)
Munster
Laden with injuries to key players once more, fifth-placed Munster (51 PTS) head to ninth-placed Connacht (44 PTs) this Saturday in the knowledge that victory at a sold-out Dexcom Stadium will secure their play-off berth — and give them a serious shot at a home quarter-final, and perhaps even more.
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Josh Hodnett and Edwin Edogbo following Munster's recent victory over Ulster. Dan Sheridan / INPHO
Dan Sheridan / INPHO / INPHO
Equally, Munster know that a home victory over the Lions on the final weekend will seal their place in the top eight at the very least, so Clayton McMillan’s side have two bites at the cherry to achieve what would be considered the bare minimum for a club of Munster’s stature.
Connacht, who trail eighth-placed Ulster by three points and the seventh-placed Bulls by five, are currently narrow favourites with the bookmakers to beat Munster at Dexcom Stadium, which has been sold out for weeks.
Anything other than victory for Munster will leave them in the range of fifth to eighth heading into their Round 16 meeting with the Lions, who by then could be scrapping for their own play-off lives.
Only Connacht (44 PTS) can catch Munster (51 PTS) from outside the top eight. With a seven-point gap between them in the table, and Munster’s points difference currently 25 superior to that of the men from the west, it’s worth noting that a defeat with two bonus points this Saturday for McMillan’s side would still leave Munster with a significant advantage over Connacht ahead of the former’s Lions fixture, with Connacht heading away to Edinburgh on the final weekend.
Remaining fixtures: Connacht (A), Lions (H)
Ulster
With home fixtures against the league-leading Stormers this Friday and currently-second-placed Glasgow next weekend, Ulster have one of the toughest run-ins of any side — but Richie Murphy will feel his side have rediscovered their form in the nick of time with last Saturday’s excellent Challenge Cup semi-final victory over Exeter Chiefs.
Nathan Doak and Mike Lowry of Ulster celebrate against Exeter Chiefs. Ryan Byrne / INPHO
Ryan Byrne / INPHO / INPHO
The state of play for the northern province is that they currently sit eighth (47 PTS), where only Connacht (44 PTS) can catch them from outside the current play-off standings.
Currently two points above Ulster in seventh are the Bulls (49 PTS), who could well pick up the maximum from their run-in at home to already-eliminated Italian sides Zebre and Benetton. But sixth-placed Cardiff (50 PTS) remain vulnerable: they also face the current top two on the final two weekends, but whereas Ulster will face the Stormers and Glasgow respectively at home, Cardiff must travel to Scotstoun this Friday before finishing against the Stormers in the Welsh capital.
Bearing in mind that the Lions (currently just six points clear of Ulster) must travel to both Leinster and Munster, and Munster themselves (four points clear of Ulster) face a trip to Galway, there remains significant scope for the northern province to secure at least a home quarter-final if they can pick up where they left off against Exeter at Affidea Stadium last week.
If Ulster win their last two, they’re guaranteed a play-off berth at minimum, but a defeat to the Stormers on Friday would leave them looking over their shoulders ahead of Connacht-Munster on Saturday.
Worth mentioning, of course, is the wildcard scenario in which Ulster finish ninth but beat Montpellier in the Challenge Cup final, in which case they would qualify for next season’s Champions Cup at the expense of the side who finishes eighth in the URC.
Remaining fixtures: Stormers (H), Glasgow (A)
Connacht
Connacht’s mission is far from easy but it’s fairly simple: first and foremost, they need to win.
If Ulster beat the Stormers on Friday, Connacht will realistically need to beat Munster on Saturday to remain in the play-off hunt. If Ulster fail to beat the Capetonians, a Connacht victory could see them leapfrog Ulster into eighth heading into the final weekend (bonus points depending).
Connacht's Sean Naughton celebrating his game-sealing try away to the Stormers last month. Steve Haag Sports / Darren Stewart/INPHO
Steve Haag Sports / Darren Stewart/INPHO / Darren Stewart/INPHO
Victories for Connacht at home to Munster and away to 12th-placed Edinburgh next weekend would leave them on somewhere between 52 and 54 points in the table, which still wouldn’t mathematically guarantee their position in the top eight — but it would leave one or several of the Lions, Munster, Cardiff and Ulster vulnerable amid their respectively difficult final fixtures.
For example, the Lions — currently third — are nine points clear of the western province but with away days in Dublin and Limerick on the horizon. It’s unlikely, but not inconceivable, that they add nothing to their points total on the final two weekends, in which case back-to-back bonus-point victories for Connacht would secure their passage to the quarter-finals.
Connacht (44 PTS) host Munster (51 PTS) on Saturday whereby a victory — again bonus points depending — could move them within anywhere between two and five points of the southern province, which would heap pressure on Munster ahead of their final game at home to the Lions.
Cardiff, six points clear of Connacht, could struggle away to Glasgow and at home to the Stormers, both of whom will be seeking to consolidate home advantage in the play-offs.
And Ulster’s aforementioned run-in could also leave the door open for Connacht, albeit Irish rugby fans will hope one of the other contenders will fall and all four provinces make it into the top eight.
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The play-off permutations for the provinces ahead of the penultimate weekend of the regular season
AS WE ENTER the final two regular-season weekends of the URC, only 12 points separate the league-leading Stormers and Connacht in ninth.
Here’s how things are shaping up for the four provinces ahead of their respective run-ins.
URC Table
Leinster
To some degree, the reigning champions’ prospects of securing home advantage as far as the semi-final stage lay in the hands of Ulster. While Leinster (53 PTS), currently fourth, would leapfrog the Lions (53 PTS) into third with victory over the South Africans at the Aviva Stadium this Saturday, current top two Stormers (56 PTS) and Glasgow (55 PTS) each face a tricky trip to Affidea Stadium in the final two rounds.
Leinster will surely rotate their squad to some degree against the Lions in Round 15 and at home again to Ospreys in Round 16 — which is a week out from their Champions Cup final in Bilbao — but they will still expect to win both fixtures.
All going to plan on that front, an Ulster victory against either the Stormers this Friday night or against Glasgow on the last weekend would open the door for Leinster to move into the top two and secure home advantage as far as a potential URC final. (It’s worth noting, though, that if the Stormers were to pick up two bonus points in defeat to Ulster, their points difference — superior by 99 — would most likely keep them ahead of Leinster heading into Round 16.
Second-placed Glasgow, meanwhile, who were knocked out of the Champions Cup by Toulon last month and went on to suffer two heavy URC defeats in South Africa, host play-off-chasing Cardiff on Friday in a game with significant implications for Ulster and Connacht in particular.
Remaining fixtures: Lions (H), Ospreys (H)
Munster
Laden with injuries to key players once more, fifth-placed Munster (51 PTS) head to ninth-placed Connacht (44 PTs) this Saturday in the knowledge that victory at a sold-out Dexcom Stadium will secure their play-off berth — and give them a serious shot at a home quarter-final, and perhaps even more.
Equally, Munster know that a home victory over the Lions on the final weekend will seal their place in the top eight at the very least, so Clayton McMillan’s side have two bites at the cherry to achieve what would be considered the bare minimum for a club of Munster’s stature.
Connacht, who trail eighth-placed Ulster by three points and the seventh-placed Bulls by five, are currently narrow favourites with the bookmakers to beat Munster at Dexcom Stadium, which has been sold out for weeks.
Anything other than victory for Munster will leave them in the range of fifth to eighth heading into their Round 16 meeting with the Lions, who by then could be scrapping for their own play-off lives.
Only Connacht (44 PTS) can catch Munster (51 PTS) from outside the top eight. With a seven-point gap between them in the table, and Munster’s points difference currently 25 superior to that of the men from the west, it’s worth noting that a defeat with two bonus points this Saturday for McMillan’s side would still leave Munster with a significant advantage over Connacht ahead of the former’s Lions fixture, with Connacht heading away to Edinburgh on the final weekend.
Remaining fixtures: Connacht (A), Lions (H)
Ulster
With home fixtures against the league-leading Stormers this Friday and currently-second-placed Glasgow next weekend, Ulster have one of the toughest run-ins of any side — but Richie Murphy will feel his side have rediscovered their form in the nick of time with last Saturday’s excellent Challenge Cup semi-final victory over Exeter Chiefs.
The state of play for the northern province is that they currently sit eighth (47 PTS), where only Connacht (44 PTS) can catch them from outside the current play-off standings.
Currently two points above Ulster in seventh are the Bulls (49 PTS), who could well pick up the maximum from their run-in at home to already-eliminated Italian sides Zebre and Benetton. But sixth-placed Cardiff (50 PTS) remain vulnerable: they also face the current top two on the final two weekends, but whereas Ulster will face the Stormers and Glasgow respectively at home, Cardiff must travel to Scotstoun this Friday before finishing against the Stormers in the Welsh capital.
Bearing in mind that the Lions (currently just six points clear of Ulster) must travel to both Leinster and Munster, and Munster themselves (four points clear of Ulster) face a trip to Galway, there remains significant scope for the northern province to secure at least a home quarter-final if they can pick up where they left off against Exeter at Affidea Stadium last week.
If Ulster win their last two, they’re guaranteed a play-off berth at minimum, but a defeat to the Stormers on Friday would leave them looking over their shoulders ahead of Connacht-Munster on Saturday.
Worth mentioning, of course, is the wildcard scenario in which Ulster finish ninth but beat Montpellier in the Challenge Cup final, in which case they would qualify for next season’s Champions Cup at the expense of the side who finishes eighth in the URC.
Remaining fixtures: Stormers (H), Glasgow (A)
Connacht
Connacht’s mission is far from easy but it’s fairly simple: first and foremost, they need to win.
If Ulster beat the Stormers on Friday, Connacht will realistically need to beat Munster on Saturday to remain in the play-off hunt. If Ulster fail to beat the Capetonians, a Connacht victory could see them leapfrog Ulster into eighth heading into the final weekend (bonus points depending).
Victories for Connacht at home to Munster and away to 12th-placed Edinburgh next weekend would leave them on somewhere between 52 and 54 points in the table, which still wouldn’t mathematically guarantee their position in the top eight — but it would leave one or several of the Lions, Munster, Cardiff and Ulster vulnerable amid their respectively difficult final fixtures.
For example, the Lions — currently third — are nine points clear of the western province but with away days in Dublin and Limerick on the horizon. It’s unlikely, but not inconceivable, that they add nothing to their points total on the final two weekends, in which case back-to-back bonus-point victories for Connacht would secure their passage to the quarter-finals.
Connacht (44 PTS) host Munster (51 PTS) on Saturday whereby a victory — again bonus points depending — could move them within anywhere between two and five points of the southern province, which would heap pressure on Munster ahead of their final game at home to the Lions.
Cardiff, six points clear of Connacht, could struggle away to Glasgow and at home to the Stormers, both of whom will be seeking to consolidate home advantage in the play-offs.
And Ulster’s aforementioned run-in could also leave the door open for Connacht, albeit Irish rugby fans will hope one of the other contenders will fall and all four provinces make it into the top eight.
Remaining fixtures: Munster (H), Edinburgh (A)
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