ONE WEEKEND TO go in the URC regular season and for each of the provinces, the final round brings with it a fixture of significant importance.
Connacht, Ulster and Munster may find themselves needing to win to book a play-off spot, while Leinster, already secure, will have an eye on consolidating home advantage for as far as possible into the knockouts.
Here’s how things are shaping up for the four Irish sides ahead of Round 16.
Leinster
Having found some late-season momentum (a slip-up in Treviso aside), reigning champions Leinster will fancy their chances of a top-two finish which would earn them home advantage as far as at least a prospective semi-final.
Currently sitting third on 58 points, Leinster trail leaders Glasgow by two points and the second-placed Stormers by one.
Rieko Ioane scores a try for Leinster against the Lions. Dan Sheridan / INPHO
Dan Sheridan / INPHO / INPHO
However, whereas Leinster will host the already-eliminated Ospreys this Saturday (5:15pm), Glasgow must travel to Belfast to face eighth-placed Ulster and the Stormers have a tricky tie away to a seventh-placed Cardiff side who, like Richie Murphy’s men, must fight for their play-off lives with Connacht gaining steam from ninth.
If one of Glasgow or the Stormers fails to win their final league fixture on Friday night, the door will be open for Leinster to overtake them on Saturday. Both the Scots and the South Africans are each considered around six-point favourites for their respective fixtures.
Worth noting is that the tiebreaker for teams who finish level on points in the table is total matches won, followed by points difference. This is why Cardiff (50 PTS) currently sit above Ulster (50 PTS) despite their vastly inferior points difference: the Welsh region have won 10 games to Ulster’s nine.
Leaders Glasgow and the second-placed Stormers are currently superior to Leinster in both the points-difference and matches-won columns, and so any tiebreak with Leinster would likely fall in favour of the Warriors or Capetonians.
Remaining fixture: Ospreys (H), Saturday, 5:15pm.
Munster
Down to the wire once more. Sixth-placed Munster are considered by the oddsmakers to be around eight-point favourites to beat the Lions at Thomond Park this Saturday but a miserable showing in Galway last week will leave their supporters justifiably nervous.
Munster contemplate their defeat by Connacht. James Crombie / INPHO
James Crombie / INPHO / INPHO
Like Munster (51 PTS), the Lions (53 PTS) will know exactly what they need come kick-off in Limerick at 7:45pm: theirs is the final fixture of the weekend and all of play-off-chasing Connacht, Ulster and Cardiff will have played 24 hours earlier.
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A victory for Connacht away to Edinburgh on Friday night, for example, could mean that both Munster and the Lions require a result at Thomond. But if any of Connacht, Ulster or Cardiff are defeated, depending on bonus points accrued in that defeat, Munster and the Lions could each be safe in their respective positions.
It’s unlikely in any event that either side will be able to climb into the top four and secure quarter-final home advantage: the Bulls in fourth (54 PTS) host Benetton at 3pm on Saturday and should pick up maximum points. The Pretorians are the only side in the top four that either Munster or the Lions can mathematically catch.
Remaining fixture: Lions (H), Saturday, 7:45pm.
Ulster
Ulster, currently eighth on 50 points, will feel Connacht breathing down their necks just a point and a place behind in the table.
Werner Kok scores for Ulster in their 38-38 draw with the Stormers. Ben Brady / INPHO
Ben Brady / INPHO / INPHO
Each side plays at 7:45pm on Friday night, as do seventh-placed Cardiff who, as previously mentioned, sit above Ulster in the table only on matches won.
Ulster host a Glasgow Warriors side who last weekend rediscovered their earlier-season verve at home to Cardiff, Franco Smith’s side registering a 40-17 victory at Scotstoun.
Glasgow are around six-point favourites at Affidea Stadium, but Ulster proved in their thrilling 38-all draw against the Stormers last week that they remain capable of going toe to toe with the league’s leading sides.
A victory of any kind for Ulster will all but assure their progression to the playoffs: their tiebreaker with Connacht, whom they currently lead by a point in the table, would be points difference, in which they are currently superior to the tune of 52.
But there will surely be plenty of eyes on phones at Ravenhill to monitor events at Cardiff Arms Park and the Hive. Irish eyes will be smiling if the Stormers can beat Cardiff and pave the way for both Ulster and Connacht to make the top eight.
Worth noting, too, is that if Ulster either draw or lose on Friday and wind up finishing outside the top eight, they will claim Champions Cup qualification at the expense of the URC’s eighth-placed side should they go on to beat Montpellier in the Challenge Cup final in Bilbao a week later.
Connacht, currently one spot outside the play-off berths, have put together one hell of a calendar year and have won seven of their last eight games in the URC.
James Crombie / INPHO
James Crombie / INPHO / INPHO
It feels a travesty that, if they were to make it eight wins from nine away to already-eliminated Edinburgh on Friday night, it still might not be enough to earn them a spot in the top eight.
A win could well be enough, though: a defeat for any of the three sides immediately above them — Ulster, Cardiff and Munster — would render any kind of Connacht victory in the Scottish capital sufficient. Plus, even if all three of Ulster, Cardiff and Munster were to win, Connacht could also still catch the Lions with a bonus-point success in Edinburgh on Friday night — although they would be dependent on Munster preventing the South Africans from earning a bonus point in Limerick on Saturday.
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The play-off permutations for the provinces ahead of the URC's final regular-season round
ONE WEEKEND TO go in the URC regular season and for each of the provinces, the final round brings with it a fixture of significant importance.
Connacht, Ulster and Munster may find themselves needing to win to book a play-off spot, while Leinster, already secure, will have an eye on consolidating home advantage for as far as possible into the knockouts.
Here’s how things are shaping up for the four Irish sides ahead of Round 16.
Leinster
Having found some late-season momentum (a slip-up in Treviso aside), reigning champions Leinster will fancy their chances of a top-two finish which would earn them home advantage as far as at least a prospective semi-final.
Currently sitting third on 58 points, Leinster trail leaders Glasgow by two points and the second-placed Stormers by one.
However, whereas Leinster will host the already-eliminated Ospreys this Saturday (5:15pm), Glasgow must travel to Belfast to face eighth-placed Ulster and the Stormers have a tricky tie away to a seventh-placed Cardiff side who, like Richie Murphy’s men, must fight for their play-off lives with Connacht gaining steam from ninth.
If one of Glasgow or the Stormers fails to win their final league fixture on Friday night, the door will be open for Leinster to overtake them on Saturday. Both the Scots and the South Africans are each considered around six-point favourites for their respective fixtures.
Worth noting is that the tiebreaker for teams who finish level on points in the table is total matches won, followed by points difference. This is why Cardiff (50 PTS) currently sit above Ulster (50 PTS) despite their vastly inferior points difference: the Welsh region have won 10 games to Ulster’s nine.
Leaders Glasgow and the second-placed Stormers are currently superior to Leinster in both the points-difference and matches-won columns, and so any tiebreak with Leinster would likely fall in favour of the Warriors or Capetonians.
Remaining fixture: Ospreys (H), Saturday, 5:15pm.
Munster
Down to the wire once more. Sixth-placed Munster are considered by the oddsmakers to be around eight-point favourites to beat the Lions at Thomond Park this Saturday but a miserable showing in Galway last week will leave their supporters justifiably nervous.
Like Munster (51 PTS), the Lions (53 PTS) will know exactly what they need come kick-off in Limerick at 7:45pm: theirs is the final fixture of the weekend and all of play-off-chasing Connacht, Ulster and Cardiff will have played 24 hours earlier.
A victory for Connacht away to Edinburgh on Friday night, for example, could mean that both Munster and the Lions require a result at Thomond. But if any of Connacht, Ulster or Cardiff are defeated, depending on bonus points accrued in that defeat, Munster and the Lions could each be safe in their respective positions.
It’s unlikely in any event that either side will be able to climb into the top four and secure quarter-final home advantage: the Bulls in fourth (54 PTS) host Benetton at 3pm on Saturday and should pick up maximum points. The Pretorians are the only side in the top four that either Munster or the Lions can mathematically catch.
Remaining fixture: Lions (H), Saturday, 7:45pm.
Ulster
Ulster, currently eighth on 50 points, will feel Connacht breathing down their necks just a point and a place behind in the table.
Each side plays at 7:45pm on Friday night, as do seventh-placed Cardiff who, as previously mentioned, sit above Ulster in the table only on matches won.
Ulster host a Glasgow Warriors side who last weekend rediscovered their earlier-season verve at home to Cardiff, Franco Smith’s side registering a 40-17 victory at Scotstoun.
Glasgow are around six-point favourites at Affidea Stadium, but Ulster proved in their thrilling 38-all draw against the Stormers last week that they remain capable of going toe to toe with the league’s leading sides.
A victory of any kind for Ulster will all but assure their progression to the playoffs: their tiebreaker with Connacht, whom they currently lead by a point in the table, would be points difference, in which they are currently superior to the tune of 52.
But there will surely be plenty of eyes on phones at Ravenhill to monitor events at Cardiff Arms Park and the Hive. Irish eyes will be smiling if the Stormers can beat Cardiff and pave the way for both Ulster and Connacht to make the top eight.
Worth noting, too, is that if Ulster either draw or lose on Friday and wind up finishing outside the top eight, they will claim Champions Cup qualification at the expense of the URC’s eighth-placed side should they go on to beat Montpellier in the Challenge Cup final in Bilbao a week later.
Remaining fixture: Glasgow Warriors (H), Friday, 7:45pm.
Connacht
Connacht, currently one spot outside the play-off berths, have put together one hell of a calendar year and have won seven of their last eight games in the URC.
It feels a travesty that, if they were to make it eight wins from nine away to already-eliminated Edinburgh on Friday night, it still might not be enough to earn them a spot in the top eight.
A win could well be enough, though: a defeat for any of the three sides immediately above them — Ulster, Cardiff and Munster — would render any kind of Connacht victory in the Scottish capital sufficient. Plus, even if all three of Ulster, Cardiff and Munster were to win, Connacht could also still catch the Lions with a bonus-point success in Edinburgh on Friday night — although they would be dependent on Munster preventing the South Africans from earning a bonus point in Limerick on Saturday.
Remaining fixture: Edinburgh (A), Friday, 7:45pm.
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