As it stands, Portugal are top of the group on 10 points. A win would have sealed their qualification last night, and they are assured of at least second spot and a place in the playoffs.
Hungary sit second on five points. Ireland are a point behind them on four.
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Armenia are bottom on three points and are the only team in the group for whom direct qualification is no longer mathematically possible.
Ireland have two group games remaining — at home to Portugal on 13 November and away to Hungary on 16 November.
Below are the various permutations that could see the Boys in Green potentially progress…
6 points: A highly unlikely scenario given Ireland’s performances in the group so far. Picking up six points still probably wouldn’t be enough to qualify directly. The only way they could achieve this would be if Armenia won away in Portugal, and they would also be reliant on a massive swing in terms of goal difference, as Ireland are currently -1 while the top seeds are +7. That tally would guarantee second place at a minimum and the playoffs, however. If Hungary lose to Ireland, the highest they can finish on would be eight points, while two wins would leave the Boys in Green on 10.
4 points: Four points could be enough for Ireland to finish second. If Ireland beat Hungary and draw with Portugal, they will secure a playoff spot if Hungary drop points in Armenia, provided the latter don’t take maximum points from their remaining games. If the Hungarians win in Yerevan, on the other hand, it will come down to goal difference. So that would mean Ireland would go to Budapest needing to beat the hosts by a couple of goals. At the time of writing, Ireland have a -1 goal difference and Hungary’s is +1.
If Ireland beat Portugal and draw with Hungary, they would again be reliant on Armenia taking points off Marco Rossi’s side, as in that scenario, four points would not be enough if the Hungarians win in Yerevan.
3 points: A win in Hungary and defeat to Portugal could still see Ireland over the line in second. However, once again, the only way this would be possible would be if Hungary fail to beat Armenia.
However, it’s also worth considering that Armenia are not out of the race to finish second. If they beat Hungary and win their last game against Portugal, who may already be assured of first place by then, they could pip Ireland to second place. So a draw between Armenia and Hungary is arguably the ideal result from an Irish perspective. Armenia can’t really afford to drop any more points, though — even if they do finish level on points with Ireland, their goal difference (-7) is vastly inferior, so four points probably wouldn’t be enough for them.
0/1 point(s): There is simply no way for Ireland to qualify by failing to win either of their remaining games.
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What Ireland now need to qualify for the World Cup playoffs
THE GROUP F qualifying picture has become somewhat clearer after last night’s results.
Ireland’s 1-0 win over Armenia boosts their hopes of qualifying, though Hungary’s 2-2 draw away to Portugal means they stay in second place.
As it stands, Portugal are top of the group on 10 points. A win would have sealed their qualification last night, and they are assured of at least second spot and a place in the playoffs.
Hungary sit second on five points. Ireland are a point behind them on four.
Armenia are bottom on three points and are the only team in the group for whom direct qualification is no longer mathematically possible.
Ireland have two group games remaining — at home to Portugal on 13 November and away to Hungary on 16 November.
Below are the various permutations that could see the Boys in Green potentially progress…
6 points: A highly unlikely scenario given Ireland’s performances in the group so far. Picking up six points still probably wouldn’t be enough to qualify directly. The only way they could achieve this would be if Armenia won away in Portugal, and they would also be reliant on a massive swing in terms of goal difference, as Ireland are currently -1 while the top seeds are +7. That tally would guarantee second place at a minimum and the playoffs, however. If Hungary lose to Ireland, the highest they can finish on would be eight points, while two wins would leave the Boys in Green on 10.
4 points: Four points could be enough for Ireland to finish second. If Ireland beat Hungary and draw with Portugal, they will secure a playoff spot if Hungary drop points in Armenia, provided the latter don’t take maximum points from their remaining games. If the Hungarians win in Yerevan, on the other hand, it will come down to goal difference. So that would mean Ireland would go to Budapest needing to beat the hosts by a couple of goals. At the time of writing, Ireland have a -1 goal difference and Hungary’s is +1.
If Ireland beat Portugal and draw with Hungary, they would again be reliant on Armenia taking points off Marco Rossi’s side, as in that scenario, four points would not be enough if the Hungarians win in Yerevan.
3 points: A win in Hungary and defeat to Portugal could still see Ireland over the line in second. However, once again, the only way this would be possible would be if Hungary fail to beat Armenia.
However, it’s also worth considering that Armenia are not out of the race to finish second. If they beat Hungary and win their last game against Portugal, who may already be assured of first place by then, they could pip Ireland to second place. So a draw between Armenia and Hungary is arguably the ideal result from an Irish perspective. Armenia can’t really afford to drop any more points, though — even if they do finish level on points with Ireland, their goal difference (-7) is vastly inferior, so four points probably wouldn’t be enough for them.
0/1 point(s): There is simply no way for Ireland to qualify by failing to win either of their remaining games.
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fyi Soccer Armenia Hungary Ireland Republic Portugal World Cup playoffs