Ireland to win by 6-10 points – 4/1
WHILE THE FRIDAY night meeting with Wales is a first for Ireland, the men in green jerseys can ill afford to get caught up in the novelty of it all as they face a home side stung by two defeats on the spin.
The fact that Wales have named the same team that were battered 29-13 by a resurgent Scotland last time out has disappointed many in the Valleys, but there’s no doubt that Ireland need to watch out for a wounded beast.
With that being said, Ireland have won two of their last three trips to the freshly named Principality Stadium against Friday’s opponents. Joe Schmidt must see this as a great opportunity to put Wales’ 2017 Six Nations campaign firmly out of its misery.
Taking the last five meetings between Ireland and Wales in this competition into account, the average winning margin comes out at exactly eight points.
Those stats and the current troubles of the Welsh have us fancying a 4/1 punt on Ireland to escape from Cardiff with a win of between 6-10 points.
Garry Ringrose to score the first try – 18/1
With Robbie Henshaw starring at inside centre and Jared Payne’s current injury woes, Ireland’s iconic number 13 jersey was seemingly up for grabs again.
If that is the case, then Leinster’s Garry Ringrose has firmly ripped it off the hanger and hidden it securely from the rest of the chasing pack; all this after only receiving his first Test cap against Canada in November.
A week later he found himself on the pitch against the mighty All Blacks and wasn’t overawed by the situation in any fashion. Since then, he’s been in the team sheet at either of the centre positions and has started all three Six Nations games to date in the ‘BOD’ role without putting a toe out of line.
Ringrose already has two international tries to his name in just six outings for Ireland and, even though he might be an outside shout, he’s our pick to make a massive statement and touch down first in Cardiff at 18/1.
Will there be a drop goal scored? – ‘Yes’ 15/8
Have you not heard? No? Seriously? Then we’ll tell you – the drop goal is back baby! Having been more out of fashion than bum bags, the drop goal made its triumphant return in the last round of the Six Nations as one was scored in two of the three games.
Both starting out-halves, Jonathan Sexton and Dan Biggar, have scored a drop at goal in this fixture in the past (Sexton in 2010 and Biggar in 2015) and, with a tight game surely in store on Friday, every point on the board could be crucial.
As Ireland return to the scene of their greatest ever drop goal – “drop at goal, Grand Slam at stake”, who’ll ever forget that – we’re predicting we’ll see the wonderful skill at least once in the game at 15/8.
Ireland (-3.0) – 10/11
As we’ve mentioned, Test matches between these two are always close and tense affairs.
In fact, their last seven outings against each other have thrown up three wins apiece and a draw – small margins, eh?
We believe Ireland can just about cover this handicap at 10/11, as the latest trend suggests they do tend to outscore their Welsh counterparts.
Ireland have scored an average of 22 points in those seven games against the men in red, while Wales have only managed an average of 17.7 in reply — so this punt might be the one to drop your hard earned cash on.
Paddy’s Personal Pick – a 9, 10, 12 or 13 to score first try at 9/4
By my own admission I am a complete green-tinted glasses merchant, but I do love my rugby.
Firstly, I don’t buy into this whole ‘Scotland beating Wales is bad for us’ school of thought.
The reality is that this year Wales are fairly crap. They are there for the taking and I think we’ll comfortably cover the three-point handicap.
Because Wayne Barnes is reffing, I think a Wales penalty to be the first score is worth a look at 6/4 (even though we don’t concede many). But, my best bet of the game is the first try to be from 9, 10, 12 or 13 at 9/4.
It’s speculative as it could be a rolling maul or some marauding backline move, but both scrum-halves love a snipe, neither out-half is afraid of throwing a dummy and both teams have a bish-bosh 12 and a creative 13… let’s just hope it’s one of the lads in green.
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For more tips, insight and the odd star columnist, head over to the Paddy Power blog.
