– Paul Dollery reports from Las Vegas
EVERY POSSIBLE OUTCOME has been proffered.
McGregor by KO. Aldo by submission. The judges will be needed. You name it, at least one expert somewhere has called it.
By now, the only guarantee is that this fight is finally happening and the undisputed UFC featherweight championship will be on the line.
Even up until yesterday, some fans weren’t so sure. Chael Sonnen’s claim that Jose Aldo would deliberately miss weight in an attempt to force the cancellation of the bout had many of them concerned.
All 145lbs of Brazilian champion were on the scales at the MGM Grand Garden Arena last night, however, and throughout the course of the year-long build-up, Aldo has rarely looked so comfortable and composed.
He taunted McGregor by mimicking his stance and the amateur psychologists went to work. Aldo is in McGregor’s head, some were adamant. But weigh-in antics aren’t normally Aldo’s style, so others saw it as a sign that McGregor’s mind games have had the desired impact.
With his face pale, sunken and gaunt, McGregor looked as drained as he has ever done after a cut down to featherweight — potentially his last. His size is a major advantage in this division, but will the effort he invests in attaining it take its toll, should tonight’s contest enter the championship rounds?
The protracted build-up has meant that all angles have been covered in depth by now. Depending on who you listen to, you’ll get a different take — on whether McGregor’s southpaw stance represents a challenge or an opening for Aldo’s trademark leg-kicks, for example.
Ultimately, it’s all a guessing game until Aldo and McGregor let us in on the answers. What we do know is that both men are among the best strikers in the entire sport. McGregor’s reach advantage may give him the edge, but Aldo’s status as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt means that he has a solid Plan B on the mat if things aren’t going his way on the feet.
There may only be two years between the fighters in age, but read between the lines to see that the difference is much greater. Chad Mendes was the first man to drag McGregor into deep waters and — preparing for his 10th world title defence — Aldo knows a well-trodden path to the well and back.
He has gone the distance in six of his nine fights since becoming a WEC/UFC champion. Six fights that lasted 25 minutes against the likes of Frankie Edgar, Chad Mendes, Kenny Florian, Urijah Faber — the elite fighters in his division.
Returning after a 14-month lay-off and asking his body — which has shipped its fair share of injuries — to endure another night in the trenches may be a big ask, particularly against a fighter who will target that body with teeps and straights to test a gas tank which has been known to leak.
During his journey to the WEC title, a ruthless Jose Aldo left a trail of concussed bodies strewn across the blue canvas. But since getting his hands on the belt, as many champions have done before in the knowledge that there’s more to lose than gain, Aldo’s finishing rate has slowed down. Is his primary aim now to avoid defeat instead of pursuing victory?
Perhaps a step-up in the calibre of competition can be taken into account, but having stopped seven of his eight opponents in the WEC, Aldo has managed just two finishes in his seven UFC bouts so far.
There’s mileage on Aldo’s clock, but he may have to turn that clock back in time to overcome Conor McGregor. Although the Irish fighter has boasted of an early stoppage, if he’s to break a durable campaigner like Aldo down, it’ll likely take more than one round.
There’s pressure on both fighters, of course, to deliver on their promises of a flawless victory. You get the sense that McGregor thrives on it, but this amount of attention is new for Aldo. Everywhere he’s been for the past 12 months, people have been telling him: ‘Please, teach this Irish loudmouth a lesson’. He’s carrying the hopes of McGregor’s multitude of detractors on his shoulders.
Earlier this year, former UFC champion Georges St Pierre said McGregor is ‘either smart or very dumb’ for getting under Aldo’s skin. If that results in Aldo fighting with anger, it remains to be seen whether that will backfire or pay off for ‘The Notorious’.
There are plenty of concerns too for McGregor. Is the knee injury a thing of the past, as we’ve been led to believe? Will the weight-cut come into play as the fight progresses? Can he handle Aldo’s wrestling and jiu-jitsu? And how will he respond if Aldo forces him backwards in the exchanges?
Therein could lie the key to victory for either fighter. Both of them have become accustomed to fighting on the lead, dictating the pace, staying on the front-foot, cutting the octagon off for their opponents.
We expect McGregor to charge right out from his corner in order to let Aldo know that the centre of the octagon will be his territory, but Aldo will be anticipating that too. Applying his high-pressure game has been one of McGregor’s major attributes. Negating it early on would be a significant psychological fillip for Aldo.
Having spoken to some colleagues in the media here in Las Vegas in recent days, many appear to have altered their projections as the contest draws nearer. Those tipping McGregor seem to be experiencing white-line fever as the prospect of doubting Jose Aldo closes in.
Aldo is one of the most dominant fighters the sport has ever seen, over 10 years undefeated. They’re asking themselves, how can we bet against a man who has seldom given us a hint of a reason to?
I know where they’re coming from because I’ve experienced the same feelings of confusion. Gut instinct tells me that McGregor will stay out of reach and pick Aldo off with his wide variety of kicks — teeps, hook-kicks, roundhouses — before sealing the deal with his powerful left hand.
Yet each time I’ve convinced myself that it’ll be McGregor’s night, I’m reminded of Jose Aldo’s jabs, his knees, his leg-kicks, his wrestling and his track record of seeing off all previous challengers while doing everything almost perfectly.
The reality with this match-up is that more analysis simply creates further uncertainty about the outcome. The fight may be taking place in the gambling capital of the world, but the safest bet here is keeping your money in your pocket.
The respective styles and attributes of both fighters mean it’s highly unlikely that UFC 194′s main event will fail to deliver in terms of entertainment value. But the aftermath may be the most intriguing part.
In the early hours of tomorrow morning, we’ll witness something that’s never been seen in the UFC before: either a beaten, inferior, not-good-enough Jose Aldo, questioning where his career goes from here; or Conor McGregor, bettered by another man in spite of his promises of ‘a masterclass’, with a long queue of critics clamouring to serve him that slice of humble pie.
Verdict: Backed into a corner, I’m going with Conor McGregor via (T)KO in round three.
