KIERAN MCGEENEY COULD be forgiven for thinking his Armagh team are strapped to an inversion table rather than being measured by the league one this spring.
World upside down? They have played five games and have probably done enough to win four of them, and now they face a Dublin team who Ger Brennan will probably concede have played well enough to win just one.
Yet, somehow, Armagh are the ones who are looking up at their hosts in Croke Park this Saturday evening in the knowledge that if it stays that way, looking down is the only world view on offer.
Despite having lost four, they have a plus scoring differential – a record shared only by unbeaten Donegal, Mayo and Kerry (both of whom have lost once) – which goes against the grain of mathematical convention.
The obvious summation is that they deserve better, but McGeeney has been around the block long enough to know that “deserves got nothin’ to do with it” is more than a trigger-happy Clint Eastwood punchline.
Brennan’s comfort over McGeeney extends far beyond the fact they have two wins on the board, and is mainly cushioned in the sense the Dublin manager is not as exercised about the consequences of not staying in the top division.
How do we know that? If results were his be all and end all, then Dublin’s league campaign would not have the feel of a revolving stage audition, Brennan having already used in excess of two teams (33 players) over the five rounds.
Dublin manager Ger Brennan. Tom O’Hanlon / INPHO
Tom O’Hanlon / INPHO / INPHO
In contrast, McGeeney has barely strayed beyond a single match day allocation, with just 22 players having received game-time.
In one sense, that might be a comfort as they are proving to be ultra competitive while cut to the bone.
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In another, that comfort feels more than a little chilled.
The sense this time last year was that Armagh were not just defending All-Ireland champions, but flourishing ones.
The argument was easily made that they were a stronger group than the one which had blindsided pretty much everyone to win the Sam Maguire the previous summer, blessed with depth and a championship winning squad.
The promotion of Ross McQuillan, Darragh McMullan, Callum O’Neill and the rejuvenated Jarly Óg Burns meant that Armagh carried a bench weaponised for impact, yet over the past month it is one which McGeeney has hardly had the stomach to look at, never mind lean on.
Armagh's Jarly Óg Burns. James Crombie / INPHO
James Crombie / INPHO / INPHO
Only once (against Roscommon) has he opted to make full use of the five allocated replacements, bringing on just two last time out against Mayo.
When others, not least table-toppers and Ulster rivals Donegal, have been managing match-minutes and results in what is the most game-intense period of the season, Armagh have been going full pedal to the metal with what they have, while getting little in return.
That is the price for a lengthy list of absentees, the retirement of Soupy Campbell, Niall Grimley’s decision to take the year out, and long-term injury enforced absentees in Rory Grugan, Barry McCambridge, Aaron McKay, Aidan Forker and Connaire Mackin, all topped of with Rian O’Neill’s continued unavailability.
There may be a sense everything will be alright on the night when they start getting those back, but it may not be that simple.
There is no hint of O’Neill returning, Forker, 34 next month, missed most of last season as well, while McCambridge’s form last year dipped well shy of that which saw him short-listed for player of the year in 2024.
Rory Grugan in action for Armagh against Dublin last year. Tom O’Hanlon / INPHO
Tom O’Hanlon / INPHO / INPHO
Arguably, the player they miss every bit as much as O’Neill is Grugan, who brings the cohesion and rhythm to the Armagh attack, which Paudie Clifford gifts Kerry.
The headline stat in four consecutive defeats has been their failure to find the back of the net in those games, but equally so, has been their inability to nail two-pointers, scoring just six from play and nine in total.
Last time out against Mayo, with the game on a knife edge, the sight of Ross McQuillan tapping over a point, rather than seeking to go for goal when one on one, not only jarred, but hinted at a risk-averse mindset.
It is not that their attack is malfunctioning, on the contrary they are getting off more shots and converting more one-pointers than anyone else but the paucity of momentum changing scores may go some way to explaining why they keep coming up on the wrong side of razor-thin lines thus far.
There is nothing new in that. An obvious criticism, before winning the All-Ireland and showcased by losing four penalty shoot-outs in three seasons, was a habit of coming up shy in tight games, a pattern which has reimposed itself in recent weeks.
That may, in part, be down to bad luck, but their failure to break their duck in Ulster last year had a feel of Groundhog Day about it.
There has been no more than a cigarette paper between themselves and Donegal in the past two Ulster finals, and there is a case to be made – having led by four going into the final quarter in 2024 and scoring seven of the last eight points in regular time last year – that they may have been marginally the better team in those games, but it counted for nought.
Donegal were hard-nosed when it mattered most, much as Armagh blinked at the same juncture.
Their inability to hit big scores in tight games has echoes of that; they have a lack of outside the arc shooters in Grimley, Campbell, Grugan and Rian O’Neill’s absence, while Oisin O’Neill’s location in the inside line has negated his threat on that front.
And Grugan’s absence has not only dulled their ability to unpick locks, it has also left their best forward Oisin Conaty a little isolated and easier for the opposition to commit man-marking resources to.
Armagh's Oisin Conaty in action against Dublin last summer. Tom O’Hanlon / INPHO
Tom O’Hanlon / INPHO / INPHO
Getting Grugan back will be a boost, but rehabbing from a serious Achilles injury and now in his 35th year while woefully short of match practice, it is almost an impossible ask for him to pick up where he left off if he is back for the summer.
That Armagh will get stronger in time is a given, but so will everyone else.
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They will have to find something extra in what they have rather than just waiting for those currently not there – and we have not mentioned the excellent Andrew Murnin who has missed the last couple of games.
The highlight of their campaign to date was McGeeney’s dismissal of the new rules of engagement on kick-outs as “piggery.”
It might be reading too much into it, but it hinted at a manager, like so many others, who was lamenting the passing of a game where coaching control and game-plan rigidity was central if not absolute.
There was a time when the Armagh team that McGeeney captained would have relished staking out their corner in a battle of wills, not least when in their pomp they borrowed from English rugby’s wardrobe to model painted on jerseys showcasing their beefed up frames in seeking to gain an inch when invited to the piggery.
Back then they did not pore over kick-out retention and shot execution rates, but played with the instinct that you have to battle hard and kick big if you want to shoot for the stars.
Their world might right itself if they went a little back to that future.
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Close Calls - How are McGeeney's Armagh fighting to avoid the drop in Dublin test?
KIERAN MCGEENEY COULD be forgiven for thinking his Armagh team are strapped to an inversion table rather than being measured by the league one this spring.
World upside down? They have played five games and have probably done enough to win four of them, and now they face a Dublin team who Ger Brennan will probably concede have played well enough to win just one.
Yet, somehow, Armagh are the ones who are looking up at their hosts in Croke Park this Saturday evening in the knowledge that if it stays that way, looking down is the only world view on offer.
Despite having lost four, they have a plus scoring differential – a record shared only by unbeaten Donegal, Mayo and Kerry (both of whom have lost once) – which goes against the grain of mathematical convention.
The obvious summation is that they deserve better, but McGeeney has been around the block long enough to know that “deserves got nothin’ to do with it” is more than a trigger-happy Clint Eastwood punchline.
Brennan’s comfort over McGeeney extends far beyond the fact they have two wins on the board, and is mainly cushioned in the sense the Dublin manager is not as exercised about the consequences of not staying in the top division.
How do we know that? If results were his be all and end all, then Dublin’s league campaign would not have the feel of a revolving stage audition, Brennan having already used in excess of two teams (33 players) over the five rounds.
In contrast, McGeeney has barely strayed beyond a single match day allocation, with just 22 players having received game-time.
In one sense, that might be a comfort as they are proving to be ultra competitive while cut to the bone.
In another, that comfort feels more than a little chilled.
The sense this time last year was that Armagh were not just defending All-Ireland champions, but flourishing ones.
The argument was easily made that they were a stronger group than the one which had blindsided pretty much everyone to win the Sam Maguire the previous summer, blessed with depth and a championship winning squad.
The promotion of Ross McQuillan, Darragh McMullan, Callum O’Neill and the rejuvenated Jarly Óg Burns meant that Armagh carried a bench weaponised for impact, yet over the past month it is one which McGeeney has hardly had the stomach to look at, never mind lean on.
Only once (against Roscommon) has he opted to make full use of the five allocated replacements, bringing on just two last time out against Mayo.
When others, not least table-toppers and Ulster rivals Donegal, have been managing match-minutes and results in what is the most game-intense period of the season, Armagh have been going full pedal to the metal with what they have, while getting little in return.
That is the price for a lengthy list of absentees, the retirement of Soupy Campbell, Niall Grimley’s decision to take the year out, and long-term injury enforced absentees in Rory Grugan, Barry McCambridge, Aaron McKay, Aidan Forker and Connaire Mackin, all topped of with Rian O’Neill’s continued unavailability.
There may be a sense everything will be alright on the night when they start getting those back, but it may not be that simple.
There is no hint of O’Neill returning, Forker, 34 next month, missed most of last season as well, while McCambridge’s form last year dipped well shy of that which saw him short-listed for player of the year in 2024.
Arguably, the player they miss every bit as much as O’Neill is Grugan, who brings the cohesion and rhythm to the Armagh attack, which Paudie Clifford gifts Kerry.
The headline stat in four consecutive defeats has been their failure to find the back of the net in those games, but equally so, has been their inability to nail two-pointers, scoring just six from play and nine in total.
Last time out against Mayo, with the game on a knife edge, the sight of Ross McQuillan tapping over a point, rather than seeking to go for goal when one on one, not only jarred, but hinted at a risk-averse mindset.
It is not that their attack is malfunctioning, on the contrary they are getting off more shots and converting more one-pointers than anyone else but the paucity of momentum changing scores may go some way to explaining why they keep coming up on the wrong side of razor-thin lines thus far.
There is nothing new in that. An obvious criticism, before winning the All-Ireland and showcased by losing four penalty shoot-outs in three seasons, was a habit of coming up shy in tight games, a pattern which has reimposed itself in recent weeks.
That may, in part, be down to bad luck, but their failure to break their duck in Ulster last year had a feel of Groundhog Day about it.
There has been no more than a cigarette paper between themselves and Donegal in the past two Ulster finals, and there is a case to be made – having led by four going into the final quarter in 2024 and scoring seven of the last eight points in regular time last year – that they may have been marginally the better team in those games, but it counted for nought.
Donegal were hard-nosed when it mattered most, much as Armagh blinked at the same juncture.
Their inability to hit big scores in tight games has echoes of that; they have a lack of outside the arc shooters in Grimley, Campbell, Grugan and Rian O’Neill’s absence, while Oisin O’Neill’s location in the inside line has negated his threat on that front.
And Grugan’s absence has not only dulled their ability to unpick locks, it has also left their best forward Oisin Conaty a little isolated and easier for the opposition to commit man-marking resources to.
Getting Grugan back will be a boost, but rehabbing from a serious Achilles injury and now in his 35th year while woefully short of match practice, it is almost an impossible ask for him to pick up where he left off if he is back for the summer.
That Armagh will get stronger in time is a given, but so will everyone else.
They will have to find something extra in what they have rather than just waiting for those currently not there – and we have not mentioned the excellent Andrew Murnin who has missed the last couple of games.
The highlight of their campaign to date was McGeeney’s dismissal of the new rules of engagement on kick-outs as “piggery.”
It might be reading too much into it, but it hinted at a manager, like so many others, who was lamenting the passing of a game where coaching control and game-plan rigidity was central if not absolute.
There was a time when the Armagh team that McGeeney captained would have relished staking out their corner in a battle of wills, not least when in their pomp they borrowed from English rugby’s wardrobe to model painted on jerseys showcasing their beefed up frames in seeking to gain an inch when invited to the piggery.
Back then they did not pore over kick-out retention and shot execution rates, but played with the instinct that you have to battle hard and kick big if you want to shoot for the stars.
Their world might right itself if they went a little back to that future.
*****
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Armagh basement battle Dublin Fighting The Drop GAA Kieran McGeeney