IRELAND STILL CLING to the hope that Evan Ferguson will be fit to face Hungary on Sunday but their nightmare has dawned for Thursday’s game against Portugal at least. How to score without Ferguson?
Ferguson’s career record currently looks an oddity. His goals at club level have entirely dried up: he has yet to score for Roma and has scored only three goals in 58 club games since his break-out hat-trick against Newcastle for Brighton in September 2023.
Yet he has scored as many goals in only four World Cup qualifiers this year for Ireland, and has eight goals in 26 senior caps in total.
This is plainly an outstanding scoring record by Irish standards: it took Robbie Keane an additional two appearances to reach eight goals for his country, and he was playing in a far better team than this current enterprise.
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Injuries are the biggest single reason for Ferguson’s struggles at club level, but he has also been impacted by his managers’ tactics and his own habit of dropping deep and not merely confining himself to the opposition penalty area.
Ferguson said last month that his current manager, Gian Piero Gasperini, likes to play “through the striker”, which regrettably means he is not demanding Ferguson gets on the end of every chance Roma create. This is how Ferguson’s stat profile on FBRef looks as odd as it does: he ranks among the bottom percentile among European strikers for goals, and yet he is in the top three percent for expected assists.
Ireland have instead made Ferguson their main goalscoring outlet and are reaping the awards. Hallgrimsson has simply afforded him a chance to take shots, which he hasn’t had at club level.
Erling Haaland is an outlier, but otherwise the elite finishers in the game have a conversion rate of roughly 33%, meaning they score one in three of their chances. Ferguson has tracked at this conversion rate for years. Only once for Ireland has he had at least three shots in a game and not scored, whereas at club level, he has had a minimum of three shots in only three of his last 58 games. And as you’ll remember from above, he has scored three goals in that time. Go figure.
So while Ireland have provoked Ferguson’s qualities, they have fostered a dependence on him as they have done so. He has, of course, scored 75% of Ireland’s qualifier goals in this campaign, and scored five of the 11 competitive goals of Hallgrimsson’s reign.
“Missing Evan is a shame for us, I suppose”, says Josh Cullen. “But we’ve got other players that are ready to step up.”
Troy Parrott is the most likely to lead the line against Portugal in Ferugson’s absence. Parrott has blossomed into an outstanding goalscorer with AZ Alkmaar, and has also emerged as a leader in the truest sense of the word. Though he missed penalties in consecutive league games for AZ this month, his manager cited Parrott’s willingness to put his hand up for the next spot-kick in explaining why he is unworried about his striker’s confidence.
Parrott missed the first window of this campaign and was not match-fit for the second set of games, so this is is belated opportunity to bring his excellent club form to bear for Ireland in this campaign. He has yet to score for Hallgrimsson, with his last goal coming in the pre-Euro 2024 friendly win over Hungary during John O’Shea’s interim spell in charge.
Though Parrott doesn’t have the burst of pace of Johnny Kenny, he is nonetheless adept at stretching opposition defences in behind, a quality admired by Hallgrimsson. Though if Ireland replicate their approach in Lisbon on Thursday night, then Adam Idah provides the most persuasive argument as to who should replace Ferguson.
Idah has been consistently effective under Hallgrimsson – scoring the late equaliser against Hungary along with the winner at home to Bulgaria in March – though he has been chafing at his substitute’s role. Idah has only started one competitive game under Hallgrimsson, and that barely counts, given it was the 2-0 loss at home to England, the reins for which Hallgrimsson handed to O’Shea and Paddy McCarthy.
Idah also has the physicality and hold-up quality to be a more effective out-ball against Portugal than even Ferguson was in Lisbon: contrast Idah’s excellent performance against Portugal’s bruising centre-backs in Faro four years ago to Ferguson’s lonely struggles in Lisbon last month.
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Parrott and Idah. Nick Elliott / INPHO
Nick Elliott / INPHO / INPHO
The truly brave call would be to pick both Parrott and Idah against Portugal, and the duo dovetailed well in the closing stages of the recent win at home to Armenia, albeit in the closing stages of a game against 10 men.
Picking both looks to be too ambitious a gambit for Hallgrimsson, though, who spoke last month of realising that Ireland’s only route to success would be based on keeping clean sheets, for which the manager last month reverted to a very defensive 5-4-1.
Idah may therefore be once again consigned to a place on the bench, even in Ferguson’s keenly-felt absence.
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Ireland have brought the best out of Evan Ferguson - but how do they now do without him?
IRELAND STILL CLING to the hope that Evan Ferguson will be fit to face Hungary on Sunday but their nightmare has dawned for Thursday’s game against Portugal at least. How to score without Ferguson?
Ferguson’s career record currently looks an oddity. His goals at club level have entirely dried up: he has yet to score for Roma and has scored only three goals in 58 club games since his break-out hat-trick against Newcastle for Brighton in September 2023.
Yet he has scored as many goals in only four World Cup qualifiers this year for Ireland, and has eight goals in 26 senior caps in total.
This is plainly an outstanding scoring record by Irish standards: it took Robbie Keane an additional two appearances to reach eight goals for his country, and he was playing in a far better team than this current enterprise.
Injuries are the biggest single reason for Ferguson’s struggles at club level, but he has also been impacted by his managers’ tactics and his own habit of dropping deep and not merely confining himself to the opposition penalty area.
Ferguson said last month that his current manager, Gian Piero Gasperini, likes to play “through the striker”, which regrettably means he is not demanding Ferguson gets on the end of every chance Roma create. This is how Ferguson’s stat profile on FBRef looks as odd as it does: he ranks among the bottom percentile among European strikers for goals, and yet he is in the top three percent for expected assists.
Ireland have instead made Ferguson their main goalscoring outlet and are reaping the awards. Hallgrimsson has simply afforded him a chance to take shots, which he hasn’t had at club level.
Erling Haaland is an outlier, but otherwise the elite finishers in the game have a conversion rate of roughly 33%, meaning they score one in three of their chances. Ferguson has tracked at this conversion rate for years. Only once for Ireland has he had at least three shots in a game and not scored, whereas at club level, he has had a minimum of three shots in only three of his last 58 games. And as you’ll remember from above, he has scored three goals in that time. Go figure.
So while Ireland have provoked Ferguson’s qualities, they have fostered a dependence on him as they have done so. He has, of course, scored 75% of Ireland’s qualifier goals in this campaign, and scored five of the 11 competitive goals of Hallgrimsson’s reign.
“Missing Evan is a shame for us, I suppose”, says Josh Cullen. “But we’ve got other players that are ready to step up.”
Troy Parrott is the most likely to lead the line against Portugal in Ferugson’s absence. Parrott has blossomed into an outstanding goalscorer with AZ Alkmaar, and has also emerged as a leader in the truest sense of the word. Though he missed penalties in consecutive league games for AZ this month, his manager cited Parrott’s willingness to put his hand up for the next spot-kick in explaining why he is unworried about his striker’s confidence.
Parrott missed the first window of this campaign and was not match-fit for the second set of games, so this is is belated opportunity to bring his excellent club form to bear for Ireland in this campaign. He has yet to score for Hallgrimsson, with his last goal coming in the pre-Euro 2024 friendly win over Hungary during John O’Shea’s interim spell in charge.
Though Parrott doesn’t have the burst of pace of Johnny Kenny, he is nonetheless adept at stretching opposition defences in behind, a quality admired by Hallgrimsson. Though if Ireland replicate their approach in Lisbon on Thursday night, then Adam Idah provides the most persuasive argument as to who should replace Ferguson.
Idah has been consistently effective under Hallgrimsson – scoring the late equaliser against Hungary along with the winner at home to Bulgaria in March – though he has been chafing at his substitute’s role. Idah has only started one competitive game under Hallgrimsson, and that barely counts, given it was the 2-0 loss at home to England, the reins for which Hallgrimsson handed to O’Shea and Paddy McCarthy.
Idah also has the physicality and hold-up quality to be a more effective out-ball against Portugal than even Ferguson was in Lisbon: contrast Idah’s excellent performance against Portugal’s bruising centre-backs in Faro four years ago to Ferguson’s lonely struggles in Lisbon last month.
The truly brave call would be to pick both Parrott and Idah against Portugal, and the duo dovetailed well in the closing stages of the recent win at home to Armenia, albeit in the closing stages of a game against 10 men.
Picking both looks to be too ambitious a gambit for Hallgrimsson, though, who spoke last month of realising that Ireland’s only route to success would be based on keeping clean sheets, for which the manager last month reverted to a very defensive 5-4-1.
Idah may therefore be once again consigned to a place on the bench, even in Ferguson’s keenly-felt absence.
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2026 world cup qualifying Conundrum evan ferguson Portugal Republic Of Ireland