AND SO FRANCE become the latest fully paid-up members of the 7/1 club. Having tried out the tactic of selecting seven forward replacements on the bench for their round three trip to Italy, the French have decided they like what they see, and have opted for the same approach for Saturday’s crunch Six Nations meeting with Ireland.
It’s a huge call, but one they feel could prove decisive on the day.
If all goes to plan for the French they’ll be in a decent position by the time those seven forwards start rolling onto the pitch, with their introduction adding the momentum and power that allows the visitors finish on top of their hosts at the Aviva Stadium. Job done.
But what if it doesn’t? The 7/1 is a relatively new idea in rugby which splits opinion and comes loaded with risk.
Think 7/1 and you think the Springboks, who can point to their 2023 World Cup success as evidence of the reward outweighing the risk.
Advertisement
France captain Antoine Dupont and head coach Fabien Galthié. Alamy Stock Photo
Alamy Stock Photo
Yet their 7/1 had a mixed return at that tournament. Having first unleashed the tactic in a pre-World Cup warm-up meeting with New Zealand, South Africa went 7/1 in the pool stages against Ireland and lost 13-8 at the Stade de France. Interestingly, in the lead-up to that game South Africa coach Jacques Nienaber said the 7/1 plan was designed with Ireland in mind.
South Africa then moved away from the 7/1 until the World Cup final, where it helped them edge New Zealand 12-11.
But with 7/1 it only takes one injury to stretch a team, and while this French squad boasts a few flexible forwards, it is perhaps not as adaptable as that South Africa group was. In Dublin, Bordeaux scrum-half Maxime Lucu will be the sole replacement to cover the French backs, so an injury in the backline could shift the world’s greatest player, Antoine Dupont, from scrum-half. He can still do damage across the backline but there is no doubt the France captain is less effective when moved from nine.
Even the more palatable gamble of a 6/2 split has come back to bite teams. When Toulouse went 6/2 against Leinster in 2022, injuries meant Dupont was moved to out-half after just 15 minutes as Romain Ntamack relocated to midfield. With their two key playmakers out of position, Toulouse went on to lose by 19 points.
Ireland have selected a 6/2 split this weekend despite some mixed returns from the tactic. We recently saw Ireland A’s backline wrecked by injuries when they went 6/2 against England A, while Andy Farrell’s squad had similar problems at Twickenham last year.
The 6/2 had worked for Ireland against France on the opening weekend of the 2024 Six Nations but against England an early injury to Calvin Nash saw Hugo Keenan move to the wing as Ciarán Frawley came in at fullback. The end result was 75 minutes of rugby where Ireland had only one recognised winger on the pitch, a specialist fullback on the right wing, a player winning just his fourth Test cap at fullback and Jamison Gibson-Park playing the closing half hour on the wing.
More recently, Scotland went 6/2 against Ireland and lost both Finn Russell and Darcy Graham in the first half after a nasty clash of heads.
France, of course, will have weighed this all up before deciding the even more radical 7/1 was the right way to go.
Otherwise the French team is as expected, with the talismanic Gregory Alldritt named in the starting XV after overcoming an injury scare earlier this week. The big La Rochelle number eight is one of the best operators around and has haunted Leinster over the years, but in the previous two editions of this fixture he’s been outplayed by Caelan Doris, so will be keen to step up with a big performance.
The two changes to Fabien Galthié’s starting team were widely anticipated. Having completed his two-game ban following a red card in the opening round thumping of Wales, Ntamack returns to the number 10 shirt to link-up with Dupont in the half-backs – the pair starting together at Test level for the 29th time.
The gifted Toulouse play-makers are both capable of individual moments of brilliance and could be a game-changing duo for France, having both missed last year’s encounter in Marseille.
Romain Ntamack returns at 10. Manuel Blondeau / INPHO
Manuel Blondeau / INPHO / INPHO
On the wing, Damian Penaud comes back into the side after dropping out of the squad for Italy. The Bordeaux man was unusually off-colour against England in round two, but is one of the most lethal wingers in the game.
Related Reads
'He understands the game' - Ireland back Osborne to shine in 14 shirt
'It doesn't change our plans' - Ireland not fussed by French 7/1 split
France's Louis Bielle-Biarrey has become one of the most dangerous wingers in the world
Penaud, 28, doesn’t have the top-end speed of a Will Jordan or Cheslin Kolbe but is still capable of gliding through defences thanks to his superb footwork. He’s had some excellent outings against Ireland – finishing a stunning team try in the 2023 epic in Dublin – and is just one try short of Serge Blanco’s record tally (38) for France.
With the electric Louis Bielle-Biarrey, who has scored at least one try in every Test outing since the November internationals, on the other wing and the ice-cool Thomas Ramos back at fullback (he was out-half v Italy), France come to Dublin armed with a skillful, dangerous back three.
Yet France believe it is their forwards who can make the difference. There are big hitters in the starting pack, with the barreling Uini Atonio at tighthead, the skillful Thibaud Flament at lock and the experienced François Cros in the back row.
It promises to be another enthralling, tight affair between these two teams but we might not know which way the contest is heading until the 7/1 comes into play and Julien Marchand, Cyril Baille, Dorian Aldegheri, Emmanuel Meafou, Hugo Auradou, Oscar Jegou and Anthony Jelonch ditch their bibs.
Whatever way you slice it up, it’s a bold move by Galthié. He clearly believes it’s one which can wrestle the Six Nations trophy from Ireland’s grip.
To embed this post, copy the code below on your site
Close
5 Comments
This is YOUR comments community. Stay civil, stay constructive, stay on topic.
Please familiarise yourself with our comments policy
here
before taking part.
France feel potential rewards of bold 7/1 move outweighs risk
AND SO FRANCE become the latest fully paid-up members of the 7/1 club. Having tried out the tactic of selecting seven forward replacements on the bench for their round three trip to Italy, the French have decided they like what they see, and have opted for the same approach for Saturday’s crunch Six Nations meeting with Ireland.
It’s a huge call, but one they feel could prove decisive on the day.
If all goes to plan for the French they’ll be in a decent position by the time those seven forwards start rolling onto the pitch, with their introduction adding the momentum and power that allows the visitors finish on top of their hosts at the Aviva Stadium. Job done.
But what if it doesn’t? The 7/1 is a relatively new idea in rugby which splits opinion and comes loaded with risk.
Think 7/1 and you think the Springboks, who can point to their 2023 World Cup success as evidence of the reward outweighing the risk.
Yet their 7/1 had a mixed return at that tournament. Having first unleashed the tactic in a pre-World Cup warm-up meeting with New Zealand, South Africa went 7/1 in the pool stages against Ireland and lost 13-8 at the Stade de France. Interestingly, in the lead-up to that game South Africa coach Jacques Nienaber said the 7/1 plan was designed with Ireland in mind.
South Africa then moved away from the 7/1 until the World Cup final, where it helped them edge New Zealand 12-11.
But with 7/1 it only takes one injury to stretch a team, and while this French squad boasts a few flexible forwards, it is perhaps not as adaptable as that South Africa group was. In Dublin, Bordeaux scrum-half Maxime Lucu will be the sole replacement to cover the French backs, so an injury in the backline could shift the world’s greatest player, Antoine Dupont, from scrum-half. He can still do damage across the backline but there is no doubt the France captain is less effective when moved from nine.
Even the more palatable gamble of a 6/2 split has come back to bite teams. When Toulouse went 6/2 against Leinster in 2022, injuries meant Dupont was moved to out-half after just 15 minutes as Romain Ntamack relocated to midfield. With their two key playmakers out of position, Toulouse went on to lose by 19 points.
Ireland have selected a 6/2 split this weekend despite some mixed returns from the tactic. We recently saw Ireland A’s backline wrecked by injuries when they went 6/2 against England A, while Andy Farrell’s squad had similar problems at Twickenham last year.
The 6/2 had worked for Ireland against France on the opening weekend of the 2024 Six Nations but against England an early injury to Calvin Nash saw Hugo Keenan move to the wing as Ciarán Frawley came in at fullback. The end result was 75 minutes of rugby where Ireland had only one recognised winger on the pitch, a specialist fullback on the right wing, a player winning just his fourth Test cap at fullback and Jamison Gibson-Park playing the closing half hour on the wing.
More recently, Scotland went 6/2 against Ireland and lost both Finn Russell and Darcy Graham in the first half after a nasty clash of heads.
France, of course, will have weighed this all up before deciding the even more radical 7/1 was the right way to go.
Otherwise the French team is as expected, with the talismanic Gregory Alldritt named in the starting XV after overcoming an injury scare earlier this week. The big La Rochelle number eight is one of the best operators around and has haunted Leinster over the years, but in the previous two editions of this fixture he’s been outplayed by Caelan Doris, so will be keen to step up with a big performance.
The two changes to Fabien Galthié’s starting team were widely anticipated. Having completed his two-game ban following a red card in the opening round thumping of Wales, Ntamack returns to the number 10 shirt to link-up with Dupont in the half-backs – the pair starting together at Test level for the 29th time.
The gifted Toulouse play-makers are both capable of individual moments of brilliance and could be a game-changing duo for France, having both missed last year’s encounter in Marseille.
On the wing, Damian Penaud comes back into the side after dropping out of the squad for Italy. The Bordeaux man was unusually off-colour against England in round two, but is one of the most lethal wingers in the game.
Penaud, 28, doesn’t have the top-end speed of a Will Jordan or Cheslin Kolbe but is still capable of gliding through defences thanks to his superb footwork. He’s had some excellent outings against Ireland – finishing a stunning team try in the 2023 epic in Dublin – and is just one try short of Serge Blanco’s record tally (38) for France.
With the electric Louis Bielle-Biarrey, who has scored at least one try in every Test outing since the November internationals, on the other wing and the ice-cool Thomas Ramos back at fullback (he was out-half v Italy), France come to Dublin armed with a skillful, dangerous back three.
Yet France believe it is their forwards who can make the difference. There are big hitters in the starting pack, with the barreling Uini Atonio at tighthead, the skillful Thibaud Flament at lock and the experienced François Cros in the back row.
It promises to be another enthralling, tight affair between these two teams but we might not know which way the contest is heading until the 7/1 comes into play and Julien Marchand, Cyril Baille, Dorian Aldegheri, Emmanuel Meafou, Hugo Auradou, Oscar Jegou and Anthony Jelonch ditch their bibs.
Whatever way you slice it up, it’s a bold move by Galthié. He clearly believes it’s one which can wrestle the Six Nations trophy from Ireland’s grip.
To embed this post, copy the code below on your site
Gamble Rugby six nations 2025 France