CONOR McGREGOR WILL face a new challenge this weekend when he moves up to welterweight for the first time to take on Nate Diaz in the main event at UFC 196.
McGregor weighed in at 145lbs when he became the UFC featherweight champion courtesy of December’s knockout of Jose Aldo, but the Irish superstar will make the significant jump up to the 170lbs division for Saturday night’s bout at the MGM Grand.
He’s normally the bigger guy but, in Nate Diaz, McGregor will fight a six-foot opponent for the first time. However, the three-inch height disadvantage could be countered by the fact that the Dubliner hasn’t had to contend with a significant weight cut this time, which may result in a stronger, fresher, more energetic Conor McGregor entering the octagon.
They’re two of the most popular and entertaining fighters in the UFC, but where is the clash between McGregor and Diaz likely to be won and lost?
Striking
It’s no secret that McGregor possesses a varied arsenal of punches and kicks, which have resulted in him taking 17 of his 19 professional wins by (T)KO. Getting within range of an opponent like Nate Diaz, who has a two-inch reach advantage, won’t be easy.
However, McGregor showed in his August 2013 fight against Max Holloway that he’s capable of repeatedly finding the target against a taller opponent. His failure to finish the fight could be attributed to a knee injury he sustained in the second round.
McGregor also threw down the gauntlet to Diaz when they squared off at last week’s press conference: “Let’s see what you can do with the size. Let’s see what you can do with the range. You ain’t got shit.”
Diaz — who’s also a southpaw — is a good boxer but his striking certainly isn’t as diverse as McGregor’s. The Stockton fighter generally tends to rely on throwing simple, yet accurate, long-range one-two combinations, which he uses as a means of point-scoring or setting up something else — be it a follow-up flurry of strikes from closer proximity or initiating a clinch.
In spite of the 30-year-old Californian’s efficient boxing game, he’s not renowned for having the kind of one-punch power that allowed Conor McGregor to knock out the likes of Jose Aldo and Ivan Buchinger in such emphatic fashion. In 21 fights in the UFC, Diaz has won via strikes just twice.
In his most recent outing — a unanimous-decision win against Michael Johnson in December — Diaz displayed both the good and bad aspects of his striking game. Taunting his opponent in typical fashion, Diaz used his long reach and landed often. However, he also left himself open to shipping plenty of shots too.
With his hands and lead shoulder kept low, Diaz’s defence has traditionally been based on relying on his iron chin to allow him to walk through punches — as evidenced by the fact that he’s been knocked out just once in 28 fights — but that approach is unlikely to yield success against a man with the power of Conor McGregor.
Grappling
As is generally the case with a pre-fight assessment involving Conor McGregor, his opponent’s most likely method of victory would appear to be via submission. Diaz’s preference for keeping his fights standing often causes his grappling pedigree to be overlooked.
In fact, 11 of Diaz’s 18 professional wins have come by way of submission and he’s also a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Cesar Gracie. Shooting for takedowns isn’t normally part of a Diaz gameplan and nothing would satisfy him more than to overcome Conor McGregor in a fire-fight.
Although McGregor has shown some improvements in his own grappling game since a couple of submission defeats early in his career, should the opportunity present itself, Diaz has an extensive back catalogue of spectacular submissions to draw upon.
Preparation
Having both competed in December, it hasn’t been a long lay-off for either McGregor or Diaz. However, while McGregor has been preparing for this date since early January, Diaz is stepping in on less than two weeks’ notice to replace the injured Rafael dos Anjos.
Diaz is no stranger to lasting the distance, with 11 of his 28 fights going to a decision. However, without the benefit of a full training camp, how likely is he to last 25 minutes in the octagon against a guy who has only once been out of the second round?
That, and many other questions, will be answered on Saturday night.
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