ON THE DAY after he had questioned the validity of Stuart Hogg’s claims about a Scottish resurgence, Eddie O’Sullivan was cross examined by Jim Hamilton.
While his earlier comments on RTÉ had caused quite a stir across the Irish Sea, O’Sullivan wasn’t shying away from the evidence. “Scotland always talk themselves up,” said O’Sullivan. They have some deluded notion that they are better than they are and then they implode. We’ve seen this time and time again.”
“Did you go a bit too far?” Hamilton, the former Scotland international, subsequently asked O’Sullivan on his RugbyPass podcast.
If anything he didn’t go far enough. “I just pointed out that since the Six Nations began in 2000, Scotland had won 28, drawn three and lost 69 times,” said O’Sullivan.
“Now if you are losing seven out of ten games over a sustained period, it’s hard to put up much of an argument.” Hamilton’s comic reaction – dramatically putting his head in his hands – meant the case was closed.
“Look, I’m not trying to kick Scotland at all,” O’Sullivan says, four months on. “Far from it. When I was Ireland coach, we knew on any given day that they could beat you, or any side. It’s the same now. Their results have improved in the last few years; the win over England was exceptional but then they went and lost to Wales.
“For me, you have to do it over two or three championships before you can say you have turned a corner. You have to go into the last day of the campaign with a chance of winning it, to say you are up there. And really you have to do that more than once. I’m not saying that can’t happen – but it hasn’t happened yet.”
Will it ever? Lose tomorrow to Ireland and the answer will be no. The party will be over with nothing left of it bar dirty glasses and the sound of air whistling out of deflated balloons.
Should they win, though – then the possibility of a first championship since 1999 will be back on. More to the point, Scotland expect to win. But what can we expect? Great Scots? Or another chapter of the great pretenders?
GRATE EXPECTATIONS
You just don’t know who the real Scotland are, the have-a-go heroes who won at Twickenham for the first time in 38 years or the team that blew a 17-3 lead over Wales at Murrayfield a week later.
Expectation is a burden. The role of underdog is the one that suits. When they defeated Ireland in 2010, 2013 and 2017, there was always an excuse creeping out of the Irish dressing room, ranging from the embarrassing ‘the bus was late’ effort by Joe Schmidt four years ago, to the teething troubles of Paddy Jackson four years prior to that.
Those three defeats, like the 2001 Scotland victory over Ireland, were placed midway between surprise and shock. If they do it tomorrow, though, no one will be surprised.
SET-PIECE
Ever since Paul O’Connell came on board, Ireland’s attacking and defensive line-outs have impressed which is more than you can say for Scotland’s maul defence against the Welsh. They were better in this department against England. It’s also worth mentioning that Jonny Gray and Matt Fagerson nicked a couple of line outs in that win – while their scrum has noticeably improved over the last year. “If you don’t get at least parity up front then you are probably not going to win the game,” Scott Cummings, their lock, said.
They will miss Zander Fagerson today, for while WP Nel is a credible alternative, when you look at the respective benches, Ireland’s trio of front row replacements are cut from a different cloth. If there is another weakness in the Scottish pack, it is the absence of a big ball carrier to get them across the gainline. Otherwise, they have a fine balance. John Dalziel, appointed Scotland’s forwards coach last August, has done a good job.
BREAKDOWN
You could see both Jamie Ritchie and Hamish Watson in a Lions shirt this summer; Ritchie, in particular, has a bit of a snarl about him that you need on days like tomorrow. The breakdown contest with Will Connors and Tadhg Beirne will be fascinating to watch – a quartet of specialists digging for gold. It’s worth remembering that against England, Scotland won 116 rucks, England just 56. The Scots also won the turnover count, five-two, in that game. This isn’t Italy that Ireland are facing tomorrow.
DISCIPLINE
Scotland got it right against England (winning the penalty count 15-6) but we all know what Zander Fagerson did against Wales. While that remains a decision that cost them momentum, it wasn’t the only issue that cost them the game. Time after time, they had momentum. And time after time, they lost focus or control.
“It’s something we talk about,” Cummings said. “The red card happened and it’s how you adapt to it. But I’d say our discipline has been pretty good over the last two games, apart from one or two key instances, obviously.
“The number of penalties we’ve given away has actually been pretty good. We’re at the lower range of that in the Six Nations compared to other teams.” It needs to be that way again if they are to win this fixture for the first time in four years.
FINN AND THE FINISHERS
Remember these words from Finn Russell in The Sunday Times a year ago? “Eight years [including time at Glasgow Warriors] I’ve had him (Gregor Townsend) as a coach, and I don’t really know him,” Russell said. “We’ve not got a personal relationship.”
There seemed more chance of Harry and Meghan patching things up with the Windsors than Gregor and Finn reuniting. But they have, Townsend making Russell his vice-captain.
They need one another. Scotland without Russell are a bit meat-and-two veg. He is the sauce. Against England he did plenty of stupid, risky things but in the final analysis, Scotland kicked better, ran the ball better, looked the smarter team. Would that have happened without their Racing 92 playmaker?
It’s doubtful. It’s worth remembering they outplayed Wales too, winning the possession, territory and line break stats. On top of this they were in the Welsh 22 for more than seven minutes. Wales only had a quarter of that time in the Scottish 22. But Wales won the game.
It’ll help Scotland’s cause to have the huge – and hugely underrated – Sean Maitland back tomorrow. Scotland, you sense, will make chances. They need to learn how to take them. “The challenge now is can we repeat that?” asked Dalziel after the England win.
The answer against Wales was no. Tomorrow offers another them another chance. Their last of this championship.
