YOU MAY NOT have noticed. A little thing called the Six Nations may have diverted your attention but while you were away, the URC just went and made itself interesting. Who knows we may even get through a summer without learning of another rebrand?
It’s a funny league, one where you always feel the need to half-apologise before praising it. Yet for all its flaws – the tolerance of Zebre, the easier fixture list for the Scottish teams, the absence of relegation, the shocking underperformance of the Welsh regions – this year’s edition is lining up to be the best yet.
You don’t need to be a genius to figure out how that’s happened. A year ago there were 12 teams (a bit of a problem when the competition was called the Pro14). But now there are 16 and the four who have joined the party only happen to be decent.
For a while no one thought that. When this season kicked off, South Africa’s big four, the Stormers, Bulls, Sharks and Lions, didn’t look a whole lot different to the dismissed Cheetahs. The Bulls – supposedly South Africa’s best side – lost their opening game, 31-3, and their second one, 34-7, their World Cup winning coach, Jake White, excusing that latter defeat on the basis that there was wind, rain and a slope in the Sportsground.
That was on 1 October. Try heading there in January, Jake.
Munster did. They lost 10-8. A few weeks later Leicester followed. They hadn’t lost in the Premiership at that stage. Surely a mid-table operator from a much-maligned league, with a sand track circling their pitch, wouldn’t be able to put it up to them? Well, they could and they did.
“It’s not my job to debate the merits of one league against another,” Tigers coach, Steve Borthwick said afterwards. “What I will say is they’re well coached; they tested us; they’re an excellent team.”
For the record, Connacht are currently the URC’s tenth best team.
The Lions are three places beneath them but were still good enough to beat Munster last weekend. A week earlier they defeated Cardiff. In all, the South African sides have hosted eight games against Northern Hemisphere opposition across the last two rounds of matches and have won the lot.
Each of the South African sides have six games left – five of which are on South African soil – compared to the five games remaining for the Irish provinces. Right now, fourth-placed Munster look particularly vulnerable to a late charge from the tournament newbies as just seven-points separate them from sixth-placed Sharks, just eight from seventh-placed Stormers. If they get caught, the implications are sizeable enough. Finish outside the top two and you don’t get a home semi-final. Finish outside the top four and your chances of even getting to the semis are considerably reduced.
Another way of putting it is that this mocked competition is now at the stage where every result from here on in counts. The last place you want to be heading to in May, when the play-offs start, is South Africa. Right now, someone from Ireland, Scotland or Wales will be. Twenty-one years after starting, the URC is finally set to take off.
LEINSTER
Current situation: 50 points (first place)
Remaining fixtures:
Connacht (away)
Munster (home)
Sharks (away)
Stormers (away)
Munster (away)
It’s a tough run-in, a run of games where you could make a case for the opposition each time. Deep down, though, we know Leinster won’t lose more than two out of five, never mind the lot.
There are times with Leinster when you scan the team-sheet and you notice the gaps left behind by Scott Fardy and before him, Isa Nacewa, guys who you just knew would lead the youngsters through tough times on a wet Friday night in Swansea or Edinburgh or Treviso when the Ireland internationals were away.
It should be pointed out of course that Leinster are top, having lost just three times this season, twice to their nearest pursuers, Ulster. But the squad they have now does not look as deep as the one that went unbeaten through this league back in 2019/20. To offer balance, it may also be worth mentioning that the Ireland team that beat New Zealand last November was essentially a Leinster and District XV.
Get the heavy hitters back and you’d back them against anyone. But because the big-name players use up so many of their allocated game-minutes in an Ireland shirt, you don’t often get to see them in a Leinster one during the regular URC season, especially away from home. Remember four of Leinster’s final five games are on the road.
This, then, should have been the time to sneak ahead, grab a top-two spot and secure a home semi-final. That was the idea. Then Munster went and lost to the Bulls and Lions and that plan disappeared fairly quickly.
Consequently, Leinster justifiably are favoured to retain their title. Watch closely for Ulster, though.
Prediction: 65 points (first seed – home for the quarters and semis)
ULSTER
Current situation: 49 points (second place)
Remaining fixtures:
Stormers (away)
Bulls (away)
Munster (home)
Edinburgh (away)
Sharks (home)
Not as tough a run-in as Leinster’s but nonetheless a tricky one. You can bank on them winning their two home games as they’ve grown up a lot this term – check out their recent win over Leinster in the Ravenhill mud.
Second spot is good enough to guarantee home-field advantage and so far Ulster have shot into contention in spite of injuries to their box-office stars, Iain Henderson, Jacob Stockdale, John Cooney, and other frontliners, Jordi Murphy, Will Addison and Luke Marshall.
Addison and Stockdale aside, the remainder are back for the season run-in but there is no guarantee that Cooney, Marshall or Murphy will get into the side for their key games. That shows the benefit of investing in youth. Whether that remains enough to take Ulster to a trophy remains to be seen. Certainly it should get them to a final.
Prediction: 64 points (second place)
MUNSTER
Current situation: 42 points (fourth place)
Remaining fixtures:
Leinster (h)
Benetton (h)
Ulster (a)
Cardiff (h)
Leinster (a)
Seven points behind Ulster, eight behind Leinster, their away record of five defeats from seven road trips is simply not good enough. How can we trust them to get one over the top two sides, Ulster and Leinster, if they can’t win on their travels against the Ospreys, Glasgow, Bulls, Lions or Connacht?
There’s a deeper point to this. Home advantage counts in rugby, more than in most sports. So far this season, Munster are unbeaten at Thomond Park; that’s where they want to be playing their knock-out rugby. But it isn’t going to happen unless they put on a late charge and there isn’t enough evidence to suggest that will happen.
A little like Ulster and Connacht, you’d fancy their strongest XV to give anyone, even Leinster, a game. But you rarely get to see all their A-Listers out together. They’re going to need them in three of the final five games, and place their trust in the squad to take care of Benetton and Cardiff.
That’s just where Munster are right now, over-dependent on Peter O’Mahony’s and Tadhg Beirne’s leadership. Get that pair on the pitch, along with Joey Carbery, Damian DeAllende and Chris Farrell, and they’re good enough to get some big results between now and the end of the season. But can they get enough big results to win some silverware? It’s so much harder to make that case.
Prediction: 58 points (third)
CONNACHT
Current situation: Tenth (28 points)
Remaining fixtures:
Leinster (home)
Benetton (away)
Lions (away)
Sharks (away)
Zebre (home)
It is easier predicting which numbers will come up when you roll the dice than it is to imagine what kind of performance Connacht will deliver from one week to the next. When they’re good, they’re compelling to watch, the high skill levels of their pack enabling them to play the game at a pace no one finds comfortable.
But when they’re bad – and against Dragons, Glasgow, Edinburgh they were very bad – well, it requires extreme politeness not to be dismissive.
Like it or not, they need about 18 points, maybe one or two more, to get into the Champions Cup next season. Three of the South African sides have already moved past them in the standings and they aren’t going to slow up now that they’ve clicked into gear.
Really then, Connacht could do with a bit of a meltdown from either of the Scottish sides (unlikely) or Ospreys (you know it’s going to happen) to even make it into the quarter-finals. Should they get their best XV out – Porch; Hansen, Farrell, Aki, Wootton; Carty, Marmion; Buckley, Heffernan, Bealham; Dowling, Murray; Prendergast, Oliver, Butler – then they’ll give anyone a game.
But their cover isn’t good enough in about five positions and that’s where the inconsistency comes from. Remember they’ve destroyed Bulls and Ulster this season, as well as beating Munster. Last year they did a number on Leinster. There are another couple of big performances in them this year but they just don’t have the squad to go full-pelt at two competitions. A quarter-final place is within their grasp. Qualification for next year’s Champions Cup will require four wins from five or else three wins with plenty of bonus points attached across the five games.
Prediction: 45 points (eighth)