1. Will Lionel Messi end his scoring drought
DESCRIBING GOING FOUR games without a goal as a ‘drought’ may seem harsh, but the best player in the world is judged by different standards to most.
Having scored 16 goals in his first 13 league games in 2016, Lionel Messi is suddenly starting to struggle in front of goal.
In total, the Argentine international has gone 362 minutes without a goal, which is his worst spell since 2011.
His below-par scoring ratio is probably partially down to a recent tactical switch that has seen Messi play in a deeper role more as an attacking midfielder, rather than in his more familiar position on the right hand side of Barca’s attack.
And with Messi below his best, Luis Enrique’s team have unsurprisingly struggled to an extent. They have lost to both Real Madrid and Real Sociedad recently, while their Champions League first-leg 2-1 win over Atletico was far from convincing — it was only after Diego Simeone’s team were reduced to 10 men that the Catalan side looked capable of breaking down their opponents.
Throughout his career, however, up until this point, Messi has always emphatically answered any doubts about his ability, so it would still be surprising if this current poor run turns out to be anything other than a minor blip.
2. Time for Gareth Bale to prove his worth
Gareth Bale has in the past spoken of how he’s modelled his game on Cristiano Ronaldo’s, and when Real Madrid signed the Welshman from Tottenham in 2013, he seemed to be the heir apparent to their main man.
And granted, whatever happens between now and the end of the season, Bale’s time in Spain will always be thought of as being at least a partial success — anyone who plays an important role in winning the Champions League during their first season at a club will always warrant some critical leeway thereafter.
Yet it’s also true to say that Bale has yet to fully live up to the form he showed in his last season at Spurs. Compared to 21 goals in North London in 2012-13, in his last two seasons at Real, he has managed just 15 and 13 goals respectively.
Yet this season is set to be his best yet in Spain, having already managed 15 goals in just 19 league appearances, although that said, in Europe, he has yet to score in four games.
Furthermore, at 26, Bale is starting to approach the peak of his career. And for the all the goals he’s scored, it’s nights like this evening against Wolfsburg where his legacy will truly be defined.
The legendary players often tend to come alive on the biggest occasions — think Zinedine Zidane’s brace in the 98 World Cup final or Brazil’s Ronaldo doing likewise in the same competition four years later. Bale will always be thought of — at the very least — as a good Real Madrid player, but if he can inspire a turnaround from the 2-0 first-leg deficit against Wolfsburg tonight, he will undoubtedly go one step closer to being considered a truly great one.
3. City’s defence must improve
Confirmation that Vincent Kompany will be unavailable for tonight’s Man City-PSG tie is a big blow to the hosts.
Statistics clearly illustrate that City are a much better side with the Belgian international in the team.
With Kompany, City have won 11 and lost just three out of 17 matches. By contrast, in 23 games in the Premier League and Champions League without him, they have won 10 but lost nine.
And without the solidity and organisational skills that the 30-year-old centre-back brings to the side, their defensive flaws were especially conspicuous during last week’s 2-2 draw in Paris. The likes of Nicolas Otamendi and Eliaquim Mangala consequently need to improve significantly in order for City to go much further in this competition.
4. Bayern can’t afford to be complacent
Bayern will go to Portugal knowing their 1-0 first-leg lead over Benfica is far from decisive.
Last year’s 3-1 loss away to Porto at the same stage of this competition will still be relatively fresh in Pep Guardiola’s side’s memory.
Moreover, the tenuousness of Bayern’s lead is highlighted by the statistics in the Champions League’s history — according to Uefa.com, just 54.4% of the teams that established a 1-0 first-leg home advantage in previous years ended up going through.
Bayern look set to win the Bundesliga comfortably — they’re seven points clear with five games to play — but a quarter-final Champions League exit would be considered a disaster by their high standards, and it would certainly tarnish the departing Guardiola’s legacy at the club to boot, so there’ll be plenty at stake when the sides meet on Wednesday night.
This week’s Champions League fixtures (all matches kick-off at 7.45pm)
Tuesday
Man City v PSG (aggregate score: 2-2)
Real Madrid v Wolfsburg (aggregate score: 0-2)
Wednesday
Atletico Madrid v Barcelona (aggregate score: 1-2)
Benfica v Bayern Munich (aggregate score: 0-1)
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