THE NEXT COUPLE of weeks are set to seriously test squad depth at all four provinces, and it’s hard to shake the feeling that some are much better equipped than others to deal with a demanding run of fixtures that can make or break the season.
By mid-April, Connacht and Leinster will have played each other three times over the space of just four weeks, the two provinces going head-to-head in a United Rugby Championship derby at the Sportsground this evening [KO 7.35pm, RTÉ2, Premier Sports 1, URC TV] before facing off again in back-to-back Champions Cup round of 16 fixtures.
Not many teams would fancy their chances across three quickfire bouts with Leinster, so it will be interesting to see how Andy Friend looks to manage his squad across the games, with Connacht away to Benetton next weekend while Leinster head to Thomond Park for another URC derby.
Connacht would love to be able to hold something back for those Champions Cup knock-out games, but every point is vital in their chase for the URC play-offs and there is no absolutely no doubt that tonight’s encounter is more important for the western province than it is for Leinster, and is arguably more vital to their season than the back-to-back European fixtures.
Having fallen to a bitterly disappointing 56-8 hammering away to Edinburgh last time out, Connacht currently sit 10th in the league with just five regular-season games left for them to try climb into the top eight. The URC’s StatMaster system currently rates their chances of reaching the play-offs at a measly 17%.
With that in mind, it’s no surprise to see Friend bring back a number of key players for tonight’s game, with Tom Farrell, Tiernan O’Halloran and Kieran Marmion among seven returning faces in a strong starting XV, despite the absence of Ireland internationals Bundee Aki, Mack Hansen and Finlay Bealham, who are enjoying some well-earned downtime. Three of the starting team have surpassed the 200 cap mark for Connacht, with two more well past the 150 milestone. Their experience will be crucial.
Leinster’s position at the top of the table allows them to take a different approach. With 14 Ireland internationals afforded the weekend off, Luke McGrath captains a side which contains a nice blend of youth and experience, a powerful looking pack complimented by a backline brimming with play-making talent, the return of Ciarán Frawley as a second playmaker at centre a notable inclusion.
Rising star Joe McCarthy also gets another shot in the second row having made a strong impression during his brief time in Ireland camp, while the out-half battle between Connacht’s Jack Carty and Leinster 10 Ross Byrne is also one to watch with interest.
The stats will tell you that Leinster are the league’s top scorers (396 points) while only Zebre Parma (399) have conceded more than Connacht (349), but the nature of the two team selections appears to balance things out – on paper at least.
Yet if Connacht are to get the better of this Leinster side, they’ll need to deliver an 80-minute performance, something which has once again proved an issue for them this season.
Their last meeting saw Friend’s side start well only to fall off badly in the second-half. Leinster’s bench tonight doesn’t pack the same punch as it did for that 47-19 win back in December, but you’d always back Leinster to close out a tight game in the final quarter. Again, only Parma have leaked more points in that period than Connacht. No prizes for guessing the side with the best scoring rate in the closing stages.
And while Connacht have been reeling from that brutal outing against Edinburgh, it’s worth highlighting that Leinster suffered defeat last time out too, losing 18-13 away to Ulster. You have to go back to April 2019 for the last time Leo Cullen’s side lost two away league games on the bounce. While they’ve held some of the big guns back for this game, they’ll also be determined to build momentum ahead of those massive European fixtures.
“We’ve been through the review of that (Ulster) game and it’s making sure we learn some of the lessons,” says Cullen. “The conditions were a challenge up there.
Connacht are a team – I know they had a disappointing outing in their last outing – but they’ve knocked off a lot of teams at the Sportsground this year. You think of Munster, Bulls, Stormers, Stade Francais. They’ve had some big scalps along the way.
“They’ve a lot of ex-Leinster guys in particular that know us well and we’ve struggled against them at different stages. It’s making sure we put in a big week this week. Try to get as much as we possibly can out of the week. Munster the week after it, and then you’re into Europe against Connacht again, back-to-back.
“It’s a very unusual dynamic, playing the same team three times in four weeks. We’ll certainly know each other well at the end of this next four weeks. For us, it’s just trying to focus on what we can try and improve on our performance. There was some good stuff in that Ulster game, we had some chances, but weren’t clinical enough really on the day.
“When we go down to Galway, full house down there, we know it’s going to be a tough place. A tough battle. They’re a well-coached team, plenty of threats across the field. It’s going to be a good challenge for our guys.”
And so Galway gets set to host round one of three between two provinces who enter the contest in very different situations, but employ a similar outlook on the game. It’s not quite winner takes all, but for Connacht, the stakes are certainly much higher.
CONNACHT: Tiernan O’Halloran; John Porch, Tom Farrell, Tom Daly, Oran McNulty; Jack Carty (captain), Kieran Marmion; Denis Buckley, Dave Heffernan, Jack Aungier; Oisin Dowling, Niall Murray; Cian Prendergast, Conor Oliver, Jarrad Butler.
Replacements: Jonny Murphy, Matthew Burke, Greg McGrath, Ultan Dillane, Paul Boyle, Caolin Blade, Sammy Arnold, Diarmuid Kilgallen.
LEINSTER: Jimmy O’Brien; Tommy O’Brien, Jamie Osborne, Ciarán Frawley, Rory O’Loughlin; Ross Byrne, Luke McGrath (captain); Peter Dooley, James Tracy, Michael Ala’alatoa; Ross Molony, Joe McCarthy; Rhys Ruddock, Scott Penny, Max Deegan.
Replacements: Seán Cronin, Ed Byrne, Thomas Clarkson, Josh Murphy, Martin Moloney, Nick McCarthy, David Hawkshaw, Chris Cosgrave.
Referee: Chris Busby [IRFU]
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