CLAIMS THAT THE Football Association of Ireland could lose in the region of €10 million are “clearly overestimated,” an economist with the Nevin Research Institute has said.

In a letter to General Assembly members ahead of an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) on Wednesday, the association estimated the “likely” cost of boycotting the Israel fixtures would be €10.3 million.

The letter claims that the organisation would stand to lose €5.5 million “due to loss of Uefa participation income, ticketing, revenue and compensation”.

An additional €4.8 million loss would be “likely” due to “reduced Uefa participation income as a result of relegation, reduced ticketing and sponsorship”.

The association also claimed there could be “significant” financial losses “due to possible removal from Uefa competitions, impact on Uefa”.

The letter added: “The loss of Uefa funding, broadcast revenue, competition payments and future football income would have direct consequences across Irish football”.

Ciarán Nugent, an economist with the Nevin Research Institute, says the figures are “clearly overestimated, without a doubt, and significantly so, even in the worst-case scenario”.

He cites the fact that Ireland’s ‘home’ game, which will take place behind closed doors in Serbia, as something that will have a significant impact on costs regardless of whether the matches go ahead.

“At the very least, they are overestimates. We know from what we have, from what they’ve released, that they’ve counted revenue that’s already [null] from ticket sales, given that the plan so far is to play behind closed doors. So those ticket sales are already gone, but they’re baked into that figure.

“Without the detail, it’s hard to tell about the rest, but it’s also clear that some of the assumptions are exactly that. They’re the assumptions based on revenue loss.

“If we look at what happened to Poland when they refused to play Russia a few years ago, there was no revenue loss; there were no point losses.

“So at the very least, a huge chunk of that number makes no difference at the moment, because that revenue is already foregone by the decisions made by the FAI.”

Nugent also believes it is impossible to put a realistic figure on the cost of boycotting the games given the uncertainty that exists and lack of precedent for such a scenario.

“Economists have to be more modest sometimes when asked about forecasts.

“So there’s not a good way to come up with that figure. Obviously, it depends on how much support the Irish are shown, in response to this, from other international actors.

“We know Spain, Norway, Belgium – there are allies in this that are likely to at least be onside, so all those play into what the eventual cost may be, if any.

“We already know the ticket sales are gone, and that’s already decided, so decisions from now on, it’s not clear how much it would cost, and it seems like the most pessimistic numbers based on these assumptions. 

“Of course, anybody would be able to debate this better if those numbers and what lies behind them, if the details were actually provided, but they’re not provided, and that might tell its own story as well.”

Ahead of the meeting, the FAI have put forward a motion to members, which states: “While acknowledging the strength of feeling regarding support for Palestine and the upcoming Uefa Men’s Nations League fixtures, that the members recognise the profound impact that any non-fulfilment of Uefa fixtures would have on Irish football as a whole and on its future development, and accordingly endorses the Association fulfilling its obligations in respect of those fixtures.”

Ireland are due to play Israel in their ‘away’ tie at a neutral venue on 27 September, before the clash in Serbia on 4 October.

There has been mounting pressure on the FAI from members of the football community to boycott the fixtures as a result of Israel’s acts of genocide in Gaza.

Sinn Féin previously accused the FAI of seeking to “misrepresent the voices of Palestinian people” after the Palestinian FA recently clarified that it does not endorse the upcoming Ireland-Israel fixture taking place.