LAST NIGHT’S GAME left Ireland joint 2nd in World Cup qualifying Group C with Austria and Sweden, both of whom also have eight points, while Germany sit top on 16 points.
However, Ireland’s inferior goal difference leaves them 4th overall in the group.
At this stage, it seems almost safe to ignore Germany, given that they are well ahead of the chasing pack, and should qualify in first place without undue difficulty.
Therefore, as expected, the table appears to come down to a fight for second place.
Of the three teams ostensibly vying for the runners-up spot, Sweden have a game in hand on their opponents.
Consequently, not only do Ireland desperately need to beat Sweden in Dublin on September 6, they also likely have to rely on the Swedes slipping up at least once elsewhere.
And in the not unthinkable scenario of Austria beating Sweden on June 7, Marcel Koller’s men would suddenly also become strong contenders for second place.
Here are the fixtures remaining for each of the three teams with designs on second place.
Ireland: Faroe Islands (H), Sweden (H), Austria (A), Germany (A), Kazhakstan (H)Sweden: Austria (A), Faroe Islands (H), Ireland (A), Kazhakstan (A), Austria (H), Germany (H).
Austria: Sweden (H), Germany (A), Ireland (H), Sweden (A), Faroe Islands (A).
The group is still clearly at a complex stage, but to simplify matters, let’s assume that all three teams in question win their remaining matches against Kazhakstan and Faroe Islands.
This assumed outcome would add the following number of points to the leading teams’ current respective totals: Ireland (14), Austria (11), Sweden (14), Germany (19).
So the group would then come down to the following games:
Ireland: Sweden (H), Austria (A), Germany (A)Sweden: Austria (A), Ireland (A), Austria (H), Germany (H).
Austria: Sweden (H), Germany (A), Ireland (H), Sweden (A).
Germany: Austria (H), Ireland (H), Sweden (A).
Accordingly, in the unlikely scenario that Ireland win all three of the above games, they would have 23 points.
Germany, by contrast, assuming they beat the Faroes, only need four points from their remaining games against Austria, Sweden and Ireland to all but seal their qualification (their goal difference is vastly superior to everyone else, so they likely would only need to finish level on points to the closest team to qualify in first place).
In this scenario, 23 points would mean Ireland get second place at least, with the loser of the Sweden-Germany game missing out (a game that Sweden would need to win).
On the other hand, if Ireland were to draw with Germany and win their other two games, they would be relying on either Sweden dropping points in at least one other game or Germany losing against Austria.
If Ireland beat Sweden and Austria, and lose to Germany, they would need Sweden to lose at least one match, and even then they might be relying on goal difference if Sweden simply win two of their matches. Alternatively, Austria would almost certainly qualify ahead of them in this instance, in the unlikely circumstance in which they beat Sweden home and away, and Germany.
Should Ireland gain five points from these fixtures, there remains a remote possibility of qualification, but they would be heavily reliant on several favourable results, especially in the two games between Sweden and Austria.
Four points, again, would be mathematically possible, but highly unlikely.
Summary
So essentially, assuming the minnows of the group conform to stereotype and lose all their remaining meaningful matches, Ireland need to beat Sweden, Austria and Germany to assure qualification to the playoffs.
Should they manage to beat all but one of these teams, they are still in with a decent chance of qualifying, but will need a little luck along the way. Anything less than that outcome, and Ireland and Trap will almost certainly be exiting the competition.
One glimmer of hope can be derived from the fact that both Austria and Sweden have already struggled against Kazakhstan and Faroe Islands respectively.
Nevertheless, in all likelihood, Ireland will have to, at the very least, win two out of three against Germany, Sweden and Austria – an extremely improbable outcome based on last night’s evidence.
