WITH THE NATIONS League over and Ireland uninvolved in the delayed European Championships, Stephen Kenny’s sole focus switches to qualifying for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. The draw for the qualifiers takes place later today, so here’s all you need to know.
When’s the draw?
It takes place today from 5pm at Fifa HQ in Zurich.
How does it work?
There are 55 nations in the draw, each sorted into six different pots according to their Fifa world ranking.
There will be five qualifying groups of six teams drawn from each pot, with another five groups of five teams drawn from the top five pots.
How many qualify from each group?
It is much harder to qualify for a World Cup than a European Championships. Whereas there are 24 team as the Euros, only 13 European teams will qualify for the 2022 World Cup.
The 10 group winners qualify automatically, with the 10 runners-up going into the play-offs, where they will be joined by the two best-ranked Nations League group winners who don’t finish in the top two of their qualification group.
The 12 sides in the playoffs will be drawn into three separate paths, playing off across one-legged semi-finals and then a final for the final three places.
Are Ireland in for a tough draw?
Oh probably. Another three goalless games in November – two of them defeats – saw Ireland drop out of the top 20 ranked sides in Europe, and so will be third seeds later today.
So who can we be drawn against? Surely not Denmark and Wales again?
Yep, we can indeed face both again this time around. And, to be honest, they would represent decent draws.
With Ireland in pot three, they will face one side from pots one, two, four, and five. There is a 50/50 chance they’ll also be drawn against a minnow from pot six.
The Nations League semi-finalists – Belgium, France, Italy and Spain – are guaranteed to be included in a five-team group to give them time to play those Nations League games.
Here are the pots:
Pot 1: Belgium, France, England, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Croatia, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands
Pot 2: Switzerland, Wales, Poland, Sweden, Austria, Ukraine, Serbia, Turkey, Slovakia, Romania
Pot 3: Russia, Hungary, Republic of Ireland, Czech Republic, Norway, Northern Ireland, Iceland, Scotland, Greece, Finland
Pot 4: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovenia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania, Bulgaria, Israel, Belarus, Georgia, Luxembourg
Pot 5: Armenia, Cyprus, Faroe Islands, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Lithuania, Latvia, Andorra
Pot 6: Malta, Moldova, Liechtenstein, Gibraltar, San Marino
What’s our best-case scenario?
This is wholly subjective, but given Ireland’s painful lack of training time under Stephen Kenny so far, it is probably best to be put in a five-team group so as to get a bit more free time to work on the training ground.
That would mean we would probably get one of Belgium, France, Italy or Spain, though there is one other Pot 1 side to be allocated a five-team group in the draw. Perhaps fate will again pair us with Denmark.
Potential best-case scenario: Denmark, Romania, Republic of Ireland, Luxembourg, Andorra.
And the worst?
Stephen Kenny might prefer to avoid England after last month’s brouhaha of the motivational video shown at Wembley, but they would probably be a preferable option to landing Portugal in a six-team group
Potential worst-case scenario: Portugal, Switzerland, Republic of Ireland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Armenia, Malta.
And can we be rescued again by the Nations League again?
Nope.
While Ireland earned a Euro 2020 playoff courtesy of their Nations League campaign (in spite of finishing bottom with zero wins), the backdoor has been amended so that only Nations League group winners can qualify for the playoffs. Ireland finished third in their Nations League group with Wales the winners, so we either finish in the top two in the qualifying group or we’re done.
When do the games take place?
One of the benefits of being drawn in a five-team group is the possibility of not having to play three games in each of the first two windows, as Ireland have had to this year.
Matchday 1: 24–25 March 2021
Matchday 2: 27–28 March 2021
Matchday 3: 30–31 March 2021
Matchday 4: 1–2 September 2021
Matchday 5: 4–5 September 2021
Matchday 6: 7–8 September 2021
Matchday 7: 8–9 October 2021
Matchday 8: 11–12 October 2021
Matchday 9: 11–13 November 2021
Matchday 10: 14–16 November 2021
Play-offs: 24, 25, 28, 29 March 2022
The World Cup in Qatar, of course, takes place from 21 November to 18 December in 2022. The draw for the competition takes place in April of that year: Stephen Kenny will have completed his greatest managerial achievement if Ireland are in the hat.
