Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 6.05pm
Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett v the Panthers run-blocking
THE NARRATIVE THIS season is that Cam Newton is the NFL’s MVP because he has no supporting cast around him in Carolina but he still managed to get them to the playoffs as the number one seed in the NFC. Not for the first time, the narrative is wrong.
You might not know the names of his offensive line — with the notable exception of Michael ‘The Blind Side movie guy’ Oher — but they’ve proven to be very important in the Carolina run game this season, second only to Philadelphia on Football Outsiders‘ “power success” statistic. 76% of the time they attempted a run on third or fourth down with two yards or less to go, the Panthers scored a touchdown or made a first down.
Where they are weakest in the run-blocking game, however, is precisely where the Seahawks are at their best, with Avril and Bennett on the edge. Bennett actually had a very quiet game by his standards the last time the two met (just two tackles) but played a huge roll in Seattle’s win over the Vikings last week, deflecting one pass and consistently disrupting the Minnesota backfield in the pass and run game.
Avril, on the other hand, put a clown suit — to quote Chris Wessling — on the Panthers’ run-blockers a number of times back in week six, particularly when Carolina took the decision to leave tight end Greg Olsen one-on-one on the former Detroit Lion.
The Panthers think they’re being very clever by pulling right tackle Mike Remmers (yellow) out to lead block for running back Jonathan Stewart (green) leaving Olsen (red) to single-handedly try to block Avril (blue). It does not end well.
If Bennett can match his Vikings performance and Avril his Panthers one, it’s going to be a long day for the Panthers players trying to block for Stewart — who only returned to full practise this week — and Cam Newton in the run game.
Panthers secondary (not named Josh Norman) v Russell Wilson
The last time these two played, not only did Russell Wilson fail to target a single receiver covered by Norman, he didn’t even throw the ball to his side of the field for the entire game. Well, technically he threw to his side twice, but both passes were behind the line of scrimmage so can hardly count as ‘targeting’ one of the league’s best cornerbacks.
This is not a criticism of Wilson, but may be a problem for Carolina because Norman — for the most part — likes to stay on one side of the field and not follow the opposition’s number one receiver, in the way Darrelle Revis does for example, when they change side or line up in the slot.
This means the likes of Robert McClain and Cortland Finnegan — very much downgrades on Charles Tillman and Bené Benwikere who are out with injury — are really going to have to step up their performances.
The Panthers are keyed in on how poor Finnegan especially has played and so their strategy since November has been to rotate him in and out of covering the slot, even putting linebacker Luke Kuechly in their on occasion. Now, Kuechly is a terrific coverage linebacker — according to PFF he gives up a passer rating of just 57.8 compared to a league average of 102.5 for his position — but when you put him on a true number one wide receiver, there’s going to be one or two plays per game where he may get burned.
And that’s exactly what happened when Julio Jones (red) lined up in the slot for the Falcons when they inflicted the only defeat of the season on Carolina. Kuechly (blue) does really well to stay with the play as long as he does but, even with safety help from Kurt Coleman, the pair can do nothing to stop Jones going in for the score.
Now, Doug Baldwin is no Julio Jones but Russell Wilson is a much better quarterback than Matt Ryan and will take advantage of any and every mis-match he sees in coverage.
Who will win?
Without a doubt, this is the toughest game of the weekend to call and I’ve flip-flopped all week with my final decision. I’m still only about 60% convinced but I think the edge has to go to the team looking to make it to back-to-back-to-back NFC Championship games.
The Panthers are a great football team and have the number one scoring offence in football and home advantage — which is why they’re 1.5-point favourites — but it can’t be ignored that this is a match-up nightmare for Carolina and for that reason I give Seattle the win.
Verdict: Seahawks by 2+
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
Sunday, 6.05pm
Peyton Manning v Peyton Manning
Before I get to his problems this year, even when Peyton Manning was at the absolute peak of his powers, he has struggled in January.
No quarterback in history has as many playoff losses as Manning and, more damningly, eight times his teams have reached the postseason only to fall at the very first hurdle. That said, when his team does win its first game, only once (2005) have they not reached the AFC Championship Game so the decision to go with the 39-year old means it’s pretty much all or nothing for the Broncos.
This year, Manning has been a shadow of the future Hall of Fame player we’ve come to know, throwing just nine touchdowns and 17 interceptions in the 10 games he played. Indeed, Manning led the league in interceptions until the final week of the season when he was overtaken by Blake Bortles (18) but was on target for more than 27 had he stayed healthy and played every game this year.
And it’s not just his arm strength or an ageing body to blame, Manning — as I delve into in much more detail here — has been committing huge mental errors all season. The Steelers defence, as they’ve shown twice against the Bengals, may not be the best in the NFL but they are well equipped to take advantage of quarterback errors.
However, when Manning came into their week 17 game with the Chargers we saw a glimpse of what we might see tonight. Lots of handing the ball off to the running back, little or no throws downfield and the most conservative passing game plan you can imagine. And it could well work.
Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton v Aqib Talib and Chris Harris
Antonio Brown is a massive loss for the Steelers in this game. Last time out he caught 16 of 18 passes thrown in his direction for 189 yards and two touchdowns. Even more impressively, he caught 12 of 13 catches for 137 yards and both scores when matched up with Chris Harris.
To put that into perspective, Harris had not given up a touchdown in more than two years before that game and had never given up 100 yards to a receiver in his entire career.
So you get a sense of how badly the Steelers will miss the league’s undisputed best wide receiver and may also have to go into the game with Darrius Heyward-Bey as his replacement and Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman swapping in and out for DeAngelo Williams. We may even see Landry Jones at quarterback if Ben Roethlisberger can’t make it.
It’s really difficult to know who is going to take over as the number one receiver for the Steelers — given that Brown has started every game for the past two seasons — but it’s likely that Harris will match-up with Wheaton while Talib covers Bryant.
The pair combined for 16 catches, 149 yards and a touchdown back in week 15 but that was without Harris paying very much attention. There’s even a chance that the Broncos don’t shadow at all and just keep defenders on their side of the field and take what the Steelers are showing.
Indeed, the only positive from all of this is that nobody now expects the Steelers to win and, who knows, with all the pressure off maybe Bryant can pull off the spectacular again.
Who will win?
It has to be the Broncos doesn’t it? They’re 6.5 point favourites at time of writing and are going into the game with the better defence, better (overall) offence and home field advantage.
Verdict: Denver by 6+
