WITH THREE ROUNDS of the regular URC season remaining, three of the four Irish provinces find themselves in precarious situations.
Leinster are flying high at the top of the table having lost just one of their 15 league games, but Connacht, Munster and Ulster all face testing run-ins.
Ahead of this weekend’s games Munster sit seventh in the table, but the race for the top eight is so condensed that they are only two points clear of the ninth-placed Scarlets.
Ulster lie 10th on 37 points with Connacht 12th, on 35 points. Remarkably, the gap from fifth to 12th is just six points, and Scarlets are the only team who won’t face a direct play-off rival across their final three games (playing Leinster, the Lions and the Sharks).
The URC’s play-offs probability calculator gives Munster an 88% chance of making the knock-outs, with Ulster at 34% and Connacht at 16%.
And after all three lost last weekend, there is no room for any more slip-ups.
Munster’s road to the play-offs is the most achievable, with games against Cardiff (away), Ulster (home) and Benetton (home), but such has been the province’s inconsistency this season that nothing ever looks straight-forward.
Tonight’s clash with Cardiff threatens to be a testing one, with Munster making the trip missing a string of key men through injury. They’ve changed seven from last weekend’s loss to the Bulls, with Tom Ahern, Stephen Archer, Conor Murray, Josh Wycherley, John Hodnett and Peter O’Mahony all unavailable.
It’s a worrying list, but the flipside is fresh faces might provide a necessary lift given Munster looked low on energy against the Bulls following their Champions Cup efforts against La Rochelle and Bordeaux. The returns of Craig Casey and Gavin Coombes alone could prove pivotal at the Arms Park.
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Craig Casey is fit after missing the Bulls game with illness. James Crombie / INPHO
James Crombie / INPHO / INPHO
Cardiff, recently placed into administration, are just one point clear of Munster but the province have dominated this fixture in recent seasons, losing just one of their last eight against the Welsh region – on their most recent visit in September 2022. Furthermore, Munster have won their last 10 against Welsh sides.
It’s a game Munster probably should win, but another disappointing outing could really leave them scrapping to make the cut, and with it secure their place in next season’s Champions Cup. The alternative is almost unthinkable for a club of Munster’s stature but they need a focused, determined effort to avoid that scenario. The key area to address is the lineout, which has faltered in the absence of forwards coach Alex Codling over the games against Bordeaux and the Bulls, given his primary focus has been with the Ireland women’s team.
After last weekend’s loss at Leinster, Ulster’s push for a late-season surge starts at home to the Sharks tomorrow. The South African side might might just be the most frustrating team in the entire league, bursting with talent but too often failing to deliver on the sum of their parts. That said, they’ve done enough to leave themselves fourth in the table, eight points clear of fifth-placed Benetton. Ulster will hope that cushion results in the Sharks easing up across this final leg.
Despite their struggles over the last few seasons Ulster enjoy a strong record at home against the South African sides – winning all 11 games they’ve played in Belfast. The Sharks are on a decent run, losing just two of their last seven in the URC, but boast a horrible record of eight straight defeats across their trips to Ireland.
With away games against Munster and Edinburgh to follow, Ulster need to pick up some match points in this one to keep their play-off hopes alive – Richie Murphy feels a 10-point haul from these three games would keep them well in the mix. Their preparations haven’t been helped by last Saturday’s bruising loss in Dublin, with Michael Lowry and Stewart Moore both ruled out while Stuart McCloskey, Rob Herring, Callum Reid and John Cooney are all doubts. On a more positive note, Cormac Izuchukwu looked sharp on his return from injury and Werner Kok is available for the first time since January.
Cormac Izuchukwu looked sharp against Leinster. Ben Brady / INPHO
Ben Brady / INPHO / INPHO
Whatever happens over the next few weeks it’s going to be a summer of change at Ulster. There are moves happening on the coaching ticket, with Mark Sexton set to join as attack coach, and a host of senior players moving on, including Cooney, regular first-team captain Alan O’Connor, loosehead prop Andrew Warwick, lock Kieran Treadwell and back row Matty Rea. The financial benefits of playing Champions Cup over Challenge Cup rugby would help ease what is shaping up to be another transitional period.
Connacht have faced similar uncertainty. Sexton’s departure from the coaching team was confirmed before it was announced head coach Pete Wilkins would be ending his long association with the province, while defence coach Scott Fardy is also set to leave.
After a challenging few weeks their season is in real danger of fizzling out, and while it’s felt like Connacht have been fighting a losing battle for months now, last weekend’s spirited effort in defeat to the Stormers shows there’s still some life left in the Western province. That fight could prove to be the factor that saves their season. While Connacht have only won five games across the campaign, they’ve picked up 15 bonus points – more than any other side.
Tomorrow’s meeting with the Lions always looked the more winnable of their two South African tests, but that might depend on how much the Stormers game took out of them. The Lions are four points off Connacht in 14th but Connacht’s record on the road is dismal – winning just once away from home in the URC this season. Cullie Tucker’s men will hope the Lions look as disinterested as they did against Benetton last time out.
If Connacht are to do something remarkable and bridge that five-point gap to the top eight, they’ll need to tighten up their defence. The Westerners have a skillful squad and play some excellent attacking rugby, but they are simply too porous at the other end. In their last four games alone they have conceded a whopping 137 points, an average of just over 34 points per game. Only the Dragons, rock bottom with one solitary win to their name, have leaked more points (477 points) than Connacht (403). And yet, only the top four sides have scored more than Connacht’s 370 points.
Pull off a result at altitude against the Lions and Connacht would take confidence into their remaining games against Edinburgh (away) and Zebre (home). It might actually be the most inviting run-in of the lot.
Yet ultimately, they might not be the only province who come away from this block feeling they left themselves with too much to do across the final stretch of the season.
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Connacht, Munster and Ulster in thick of tight URC play-off race
WITH THREE ROUNDS of the regular URC season remaining, three of the four Irish provinces find themselves in precarious situations.
Leinster are flying high at the top of the table having lost just one of their 15 league games, but Connacht, Munster and Ulster all face testing run-ins.
Ahead of this weekend’s games Munster sit seventh in the table, but the race for the top eight is so condensed that they are only two points clear of the ninth-placed Scarlets.
Ulster lie 10th on 37 points with Connacht 12th, on 35 points. Remarkably, the gap from fifth to 12th is just six points, and Scarlets are the only team who won’t face a direct play-off rival across their final three games (playing Leinster, the Lions and the Sharks).
The URC’s play-offs probability calculator gives Munster an 88% chance of making the knock-outs, with Ulster at 34% and Connacht at 16%.
And after all three lost last weekend, there is no room for any more slip-ups.
Munster’s road to the play-offs is the most achievable, with games against Cardiff (away), Ulster (home) and Benetton (home), but such has been the province’s inconsistency this season that nothing ever looks straight-forward.
Tonight’s clash with Cardiff threatens to be a testing one, with Munster making the trip missing a string of key men through injury. They’ve changed seven from last weekend’s loss to the Bulls, with Tom Ahern, Stephen Archer, Conor Murray, Josh Wycherley, John Hodnett and Peter O’Mahony all unavailable.
It’s a worrying list, but the flipside is fresh faces might provide a necessary lift given Munster looked low on energy against the Bulls following their Champions Cup efforts against La Rochelle and Bordeaux. The returns of Craig Casey and Gavin Coombes alone could prove pivotal at the Arms Park.
Cardiff, recently placed into administration, are just one point clear of Munster but the province have dominated this fixture in recent seasons, losing just one of their last eight against the Welsh region – on their most recent visit in September 2022. Furthermore, Munster have won their last 10 against Welsh sides.
It’s a game Munster probably should win, but another disappointing outing could really leave them scrapping to make the cut, and with it secure their place in next season’s Champions Cup. The alternative is almost unthinkable for a club of Munster’s stature but they need a focused, determined effort to avoid that scenario. The key area to address is the lineout, which has faltered in the absence of forwards coach Alex Codling over the games against Bordeaux and the Bulls, given his primary focus has been with the Ireland women’s team.
After last weekend’s loss at Leinster, Ulster’s push for a late-season surge starts at home to the Sharks tomorrow. The South African side might might just be the most frustrating team in the entire league, bursting with talent but too often failing to deliver on the sum of their parts. That said, they’ve done enough to leave themselves fourth in the table, eight points clear of fifth-placed Benetton. Ulster will hope that cushion results in the Sharks easing up across this final leg.
Despite their struggles over the last few seasons Ulster enjoy a strong record at home against the South African sides – winning all 11 games they’ve played in Belfast. The Sharks are on a decent run, losing just two of their last seven in the URC, but boast a horrible record of eight straight defeats across their trips to Ireland.
With away games against Munster and Edinburgh to follow, Ulster need to pick up some match points in this one to keep their play-off hopes alive – Richie Murphy feels a 10-point haul from these three games would keep them well in the mix. Their preparations haven’t been helped by last Saturday’s bruising loss in Dublin, with Michael Lowry and Stewart Moore both ruled out while Stuart McCloskey, Rob Herring, Callum Reid and John Cooney are all doubts. On a more positive note, Cormac Izuchukwu looked sharp on his return from injury and Werner Kok is available for the first time since January.
Whatever happens over the next few weeks it’s going to be a summer of change at Ulster. There are moves happening on the coaching ticket, with Mark Sexton set to join as attack coach, and a host of senior players moving on, including Cooney, regular first-team captain Alan O’Connor, loosehead prop Andrew Warwick, lock Kieran Treadwell and back row Matty Rea. The financial benefits of playing Champions Cup over Challenge Cup rugby would help ease what is shaping up to be another transitional period.
Connacht have faced similar uncertainty. Sexton’s departure from the coaching team was confirmed before it was announced head coach Pete Wilkins would be ending his long association with the province, while defence coach Scott Fardy is also set to leave.
After a challenging few weeks their season is in real danger of fizzling out, and while it’s felt like Connacht have been fighting a losing battle for months now, last weekend’s spirited effort in defeat to the Stormers shows there’s still some life left in the Western province. That fight could prove to be the factor that saves their season. While Connacht have only won five games across the campaign, they’ve picked up 15 bonus points – more than any other side.
Tomorrow’s meeting with the Lions always looked the more winnable of their two South African tests, but that might depend on how much the Stormers game took out of them. The Lions are four points off Connacht in 14th but Connacht’s record on the road is dismal – winning just once away from home in the URC this season. Cullie Tucker’s men will hope the Lions look as disinterested as they did against Benetton last time out.
If Connacht are to do something remarkable and bridge that five-point gap to the top eight, they’ll need to tighten up their defence. The Westerners have a skillful squad and play some excellent attacking rugby, but they are simply too porous at the other end. In their last four games alone they have conceded a whopping 137 points, an average of just over 34 points per game. Only the Dragons, rock bottom with one solitary win to their name, have leaked more points (477 points) than Connacht (403). And yet, only the top four sides have scored more than Connacht’s 370 points.
Pull off a result at altitude against the Lions and Connacht would take confidence into their remaining games against Edinburgh (away) and Zebre (home). It might actually be the most inviting run-in of the lot.
Yet ultimately, they might not be the only province who come away from this block feeling they left themselves with too much to do across the final stretch of the season.
Remaining URC fixtures:
Connacht:
v Lions (away)
v Edinburgh (home)
v Zebre (a)
Munster:
v Cardiff (a)
v Ulster (h)
v Benetton (h)
Ulster:
v Sharks (h)
v Munster (a)
v Edinburgh (a)
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Connacht Munster Rugby State of Play Ulster URC