THE ONLY AFFLICTION worse than man flu is equine flu if you work for the British Racing Authority right now.
It’s 18 years since foot and mouth disease rendered the Cheltenham Festival a non-runner and there exists a real – and likely exaggerated – fear that the greatest equine show of them all may be in jeopardy again next month.
Panic is often best reflected in the stock market and it was predictable enough that bookmaker shares took a hit this week, even if it seems to reflect an over-reaction befitting the moaning of your mate when he gets a cold.
The emergence of equine influenza in the yard of Donald McCain in Cheshire – and the revelation that the virus has been detected in recent weeks in Ireland – has racing in a panic, at least in Britain.
On Friday, it was revealed that one of the three horses that McCain ran this week tested positive for the bug – two days after racing ground to stationary status across Britain.
“Of the samples that have been returned so far, three further positive results for equine influenza have been reported, all from the original affected yard,” said a BHA statement Friday.
“This means that in total six positive tests have been returned from the horses tested so far from this yard. Of the four horses from this yard who competed at fixtures this week, one has returned a positive sample so far; Raise A Spark, who competed at Ayr on 6 February.
The test on this runner relates to a sample taken the following day, and the horse showed no clinical symptoms on raceday.”
It added: “A separate suspicious case – which has not yet been confirmed as a positive sample – has been identified at another yard. No links have been identified between this yard and the original yard.
“This yard had runners at the fixtures at Newcastle on 5 February and Wolverhampton on 6 February, and as such the BHA has taken the further precautionary steps of placing all 54 yards of trainers who also had runners at these fixtures on hold and initiating testing of horses from these yards.”
The BHA says it will know more on Monday if racing can resume as planned next week. Right now, this seems unlikely.
Testing of a total of 174 yards is now taking place, but the worst-case scenario should be a two-week suspension of racing.
It takes around three days for the virus to incubate and about another week for it to leave the system so it’s no major issue to an individual horse.
What remains important to trainers is stopping it spreading which could impact on the foal population.
All British-based trainers who had runners at Ayr or Ludlow on Wednesday or Wolverhampton on Monday had their entire string tested on Friday and no declarations will be accepted from the trainers until the all-clear is given.
Somehow, they have something to take their minds off Brexit.
British racing is in lockdown, while it has happened at a particularly bad time for breeders, with the mating season just about to commence.
BHA chief executive Nick Rust told the BBC: “Obviously I can’t say definitively that there won’t be an impact that stretches as far as Cheltenham.
In all previous form where infectious diseases have broken out in horse racing, either here or in other countries around the world, we learn from it each time and the key thing to do is to inform people to stop the movement of horses.
“Then you’re stopping cross-contamination and you can isolate the issues much more quickly. We’ll be in a very clear position next week.
“If you’re to ask me again about Cheltenham I hope to be completely definitive then.”
Some of the afflicted horses who tested positive had been vaccinated. Vaccinations, of course, do not always work.
“I honestly don’t believe that any horse is in any [grave] danger from it, British champion trainer Nicky Henderson explained.
“On the other hand, if it did spread, you’d have to close down racing anyway because all the horses would be unrunnable [sic] because they were sick.”
Trainer Colin Kidd spoke of the prevailing attitude among his peers at Thurles Thursday, where it was business as usual and horses won races.
“I’d say there was more concern than worry.”
‘A bit worrisome’
The general feeling in Ireland is this will all be soon forgotten.
“A bit worrisome for racing and breeding” is how Gigginstown’s Eddie O’Leary described the situation – and the key thing is that Horse Racing Ireland was aware of isolated cases in this country for some time now.
Craig English, assistant to trainer and brother Damian, told The42: “We were told of this in January by the authorities and basically warned about what to be looking out for.
“We had a random inspection about 10 days ago with [the Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board’s] Lynn Hillyer present and she was looking to make sure that all this was communicated effectively.
The flu itself is fairly harmless to a horse’s life but if it becomes so widespread it can affect the foal population and any younger stock.
“How it seems to be now wouldn’t cause major alarm and once those swabs come back negative and/or they can isolate it to one region/yard, then it’s business as usual.
So in the interim for the sake of a week or ten days racing it’s probably right to go on the err of caution.”
There was a positive development this morning, too, when trainer James Tate revealed results of tests taken on horses at his yard for came back negative from the Animal Health Trust.
The Newmarket handler was one of a number across the town who had their horses tested after having a runner at the same meeting as one from the yard of McCain.
Kudos to County Meath-based Keith Clarke, who had two runners at Wolverhampton on Monday and consequently decided not to run Poitin at Dundalk this evening.
He told The42 his decision was made “in the best interests of racing”.
He said: “It’s a precaution I am taking, for the sake of the industry. All my horses are perfect and their temperatures are normal; my vets are very happy with them.”
With Irish racing unaffected for now, bookmakers are readying themselves for a dramatic improvement in turnover this weekend.
Those British punters who gorge in particular on the weekend fare will turn to the other side of the Irish Sea.
“All eyes will be on Dundalk, Naas and Punchestown,” said one Irish trader.
On the positive side ITV cameras will be at Naas which gives a great opportunity to showcase the racing we have in Ireland and the sport here could attract more British-based fans.”
Damian English has runners tonight and, as his brother said: “We’re expecting a much bigger audience so it’s a bonus to get a winner at Dundalk tonight!”
Those new to Dundalk should not take it to heart if things go awry, as this is not the nicest of betting cards, but Important Message (8.00) seems worth a chance at 10-1, with trainer Denis Hogan in fine form.
And on Sunday, Lady Writer (3.20 at Punchestown) looks rock-solid each-way for the same stable.
Hopefully by then, the panic about the horse flu will have died down in the manner of the patient once they’re told by the doctor he’s prescribing an antibiotic.
Following a tough Six Nations opening defeat to England, Joe Schmidt will look to regroup against a dangerous Scotland side. This week, Murray Kinsella and Gavan Casey are joined by Bernard Jackman to assess the damage of last weekend and look ahead to the clash in Murrayfield:
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