TO FRANKFURT, WHERE Ireland are seeking their most memorable draw in Germany since John O’Shea equalised in Gelsenkirchen eight years ago.
The Euro 2024 campaign is ultimately the campaign against which Stephen Kenny will be judged; a mercifully fixed barometer against the endlessly spinning windvane of public opinion on his job.
Kenny and the FAI have agreed on this fact.
It was midway through the World Cup qualifying campaign that Kenny said the quiet part out loud: that he was building a side to qualify for Euro 2024. He was widely and wrongly criticised for ‘writing off a campaign’, and while his comments might have been a tactical ploy ahead of contract negotiations, a huge refresh of the squad was necessary.
Ireland had the third-oldest squad in all of Europe in the Euro 2020 qualifiers under Mick McCarthy, an average age which Stephen Kenny lowered by four-and-a-half-years for the World Cup campaign, to 27.2. He lowered it further still to 25.7 in this year’s Nations League, which made Ireland the seventh-youngest side across all of Europe.
This was only possible because the FAI made it so. Mick McCarthy’s ultra short-term brief – qualify for a Euros we didn’t co-host anyway – didn’t incentivise any long-term planning, and thus bringing back Glenn Whelan rather than develop Josh Cullen was the pragmatic call. The new FAI regime have backed Kenny when results would have told the old gang to do anything but, to the bemusement of some journalists and ex-players.
But they are wrong to portray Kenny as being given a free pass to suffer defeats in the name of vanity as the FAI’s expectations are clearly written into their strategic plan: that the men’s senior international team qualify for the European Championship.
Thus the outcome of Euro 2024 campaign will be the moment Kenny’s Damoclean sword either falls or is sheathed once and for all.
The Nations League’s generous safety net means Ireland should get a play-off should this qualifying campaign go awry, but it’s not yet guaranteed and won’t be known until the campaign’s end.
The only way in which Ireland can take control of their own destiny is by finishing in the top two in the qualifying group and qualifying automatically for the Euros.
For that they will have to overperform as they are third seeds in the draw. The names drawn will determine the necessary scale of that overperformance. Seeding for this draw is based solely on Nations League results, a shorter-term methodology than using Fifa’s world rankings. Judging the seedings off just six games – four of which took place in less than a fortnight at the end of an exhausting season – has skewed them somewhat and leaves open the prospect of dream and nightmare draws for Stephen Kenny.
France and England, for instance, are among the second seeds, while there are some wild variations in other pots: Slovakia, who are 55th in the world, have the same seeding as Gibraltar, who are ranked 204th.
There’s a 30% chance Ireland will land in a six-team group with one of the minnows, Andorra, San Marino, and Lichtenstein: otherwise they will be in a five-team group against one team from each of pots one, two, four, and five.
The draw takes place from 11am in Frankfurt, and will be live on RTÉ Two and Uefa.com.
Let’s take a closer look at the draw.
Pot One
Potential Opponents: Netherlands, Croatia, Spain, Italy, Denmark, Portugal, Belgium, Hungary, Switzerland, Poland
Drawing any of Spain, Croatia, Italy, and Netherlands would represent the toughest end of the top pot. Belgium may be under new management by the time the Euros qualifiers come around and are undoubtedly ageing – they had the oldest average age in the Nations League – and they lack top-class defenders. Their brilliant attackers aren’t finished yet, though, so they would ideally be swerved. Portugal didn’t strike too much fear into the heart during the last World Cup qualifying campaign, but would still be a trickier draw compared to some of the alternatives on offer. Denmark are an infinitely better team than they were when they were playing us every fortnight a few years ago, and had the joint-best record in World Cup qualifying.
Poland have Robert Lewandowski but they little else to fear. They are a team on whom Paulo Sousa walked out and whose spine is ageing. (They have recently swapped to a back five partly to protect 34-year-old defender Kamil Glick, now playing in Serie B.) Hungary, however, are the team to draw. They have a lower Fifa ranking than six of the 10 sides in pot two, haven’t qualified for the World Cup, have seen captain Adam Szalai retire, and were held to a friendly draw by Ireland just prior to Euro 2020. They have some outstanding players – step forward Dominic Szoboszlai – but have fewer of them than any of the rest of the top seeds.
Pot Two
Potential Opponents: France, Austria, Czech Republic, England, Wales, Israel, Bosnia, Serbia, Scotland, Finland
Here’s the interesting insight you’ve undoubtedly logged onto The42 for: France are to be avoided. Sure they are heading for the World Cup to the backdrop of stories that their star midfielder enlisted a witchdoctor to curse their biggest superstar, but that’s nowhere near enough black magic to negate their absurd quality. England would also be a nasty draw. They have a superb qualifier record and the chasm between themselves and Ireland was made plain by the 3-0 friendly defeat at Wembley in 2020. It’s not clear that Gareth Southgate will still be in charge next year and they are spluttering into the World Cup, but they have fantastic individual quality and would be almost impossible to topple.
Wales and Scotland would provide familiarity but little fear. The Welsh will go to the World Cup but are in decline – Brennan Johnson’s emergence notwithstanding – while this year has shown there is no major gulf between Ireland and Scotland.
Ireland were extremely fortunate to draw with Serbia in Dublin last year but will count themselves lucky not to be drawn with them again. Serbia were second seeds in Ireland’s World Cup qualifying group but finished first and then topped their Nations League group. Austria are major tournament veterans but missed out on the World Cup after a miserable campaign, finishing fourth in their group behind Denmark, Scotland and Israel before then losing to Wales in the Nations League-secured play-offs. They were relegated from League A under Ralf Rangnick, though with the best record of any of the sides that made the drop.
The Czechs are dropping down from League A and Bosnia are heading that way so there are easier draws, namely Israel and Finland. In terms of Fifa ranking, Israel are the lowest-ranked side in the pot, but were promoted to League B ahead of an Albanian side that finished above pot one’s Hungary in World Cup qualifying. Finland look a kind draw. They beat Stephen Kenny’s side 1-0 home and away in the 2020 Nations League, but Ireland have improved since then. Finland, Israel, and Bosnia are all seeded ahead of Ireland despite having a lower world ranking.
Pot Three
Ukraine, Iceland, Norway, Slovenia, Republic of Ireland, Albania, Montenegro, Romania, Sweden, Armenia
It’s worth a quick look at the teams Ireland can’t be drawn against. Ireland are far from the toughest draw in that pot – Erling Haaland/Norway or Ukraine are – but nor are they the soft touch. Iceland or Armenia are more worthy of that title.
Pot Four
Potential Opponents: Georgia, Greece, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, Kosovo, Bulgaria, Faroe Islands, North Macedonia
These are the games Ireland must win in the group and the level of opponent against whom they have tripped up too often under Stephen Kenny. Luxembourg and Azerbaijan are testament to that fact.
Our old friends Georgia have uncovered a bona-fide superstar in Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and topped their Nations League group with the best record across League C, so now would not be a good time to renew acquaintances. Turkey’s decline since being labelled Dark Horses at Euro 2020 has been precipitous: they stank out the tournament and then missed out on the World Cup, finishing runners-up to the Netherlands and then beaten by Portugal in the play-offs. They were narrowly promoted to League C but went up with the competition’s youngest starting team. They are at a low ebb but are also the only side in pot four with a higher Fifa ranking than Ireland, so best to avoid them.
Greece also look tricky opponents, having topped a Nations League group featuring Northern Ireland and Kosovo, the latter also a potential opponent from this pot. Bulgaria were the only side that didn’t beat Ireland in the 2020 Nations League, and were relegated to League C where they this year finished behind Georgia but ahead of North Macedonia, who faltered after their rise to the Euros and their remarkable World Cup play-off semi-final win against Italy. The ultimately fell at the final hurdle against Portugal.
The Faroe Islands are not quite the lowest Fifa- ranked side in the pot – they are one spot ahead of Azerbaijan – but less arduous travel means they are probably the team to draw.
Pot Five
Potential Opponents: Slovakia, Northern Ireland, Cyprus, Belarus, Lithuania, Gibraltar, Estonia, Latvia, Moldova, Malta
Slovakia knocked Ireland out of the Euro 2020 play-offs and then did the same to Northern Ireland on their way to the competition, where they went out at the group phase but finished ahead of pot one’s Poland. They have been in freefall since. They missed out on the World Cup by finishing third in a group behind Croatia and Russia and their Nations League campaign was truly wretched, finishing behind Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan without winning a home game.
Nonetheless, an out-of-sorts Slovakia would still represent a more much more difficult task than any of Gibraltar, Moldova, Latvia, Estonia, Malta, Cyprus or Lithuania. Belarus has politically aligned itself with Vladimir Putin and though Russia have been banned from qualifying, Uefa have resisted calls to kick Belarus out too. The German interior minister urged Uefa to exclude Belarus, but the governing body have stopped short of doing so. Belarus are expected to play their ‘home’ games on neutral territory.
Northern Ireland are in a Slovakia-esque slump at the moment, and avoided the relegation play-outs from League C by goal difference.
Pot Six
Potential Opponents: Andorra, San Marino, Lichtenstein
Ireland are more likely not to draw any of the three minnows, but they would at least provide some morale-boosting fodder. Andorra are the best of the trio, and have a higher Fifa ranking than three of the sides in pot five.
Let’s wargame out the draw a little bit. If you don’t agree with these forecasts, drop yours in the comments below.
The Dream Draw
Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Faroe Islands, Gibraltar (San Marino)
The Nightmare Draw
Spain, France, Republic of Ireland, Turkey, Slovakia (Andorra)
The Not-You-Again Draw
Denmark, Wales, Republic of Ireland, Georgia, Slovakia
The Novel-Pairings Draw
Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Kosovo, Belarus
The Ghosts-of-the-Past Draw
Belgium, France, Republic of Ireland, North Macedonia, Cyprus
The Most Likely Draw*
Croatia, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Faroe Islands, Moldova, Andorra
*The excellent Twitter account We Global Football ran a thousand simulations of the draw and Ireland’s most frequent pairings were the group above. To echo a previous manager: if you offered us that before the draw…we’d take it.