THE LEAGUE OF Ireland’s First Division wrapped up its regular season over the weekend as Shelbourne were crowned 2021 champions.
But with the play-offs kicking off this evening, there’s still plenty to play for.
I’ve taken a look at some of the key stats from the season and was surprised by what I found.
The table never lies… or does it?
The First Division champions based on xP (expected points) are… Shelbourne! Nothing new there so.
But a little further down the xP table, two clubs have experienced incredibly different seasons. Treaty United have been this year’s surprise package, with their manager Tommy Barrett somehow steering them fourth place, and a play-off spot, in their very first season in the league.
Given the meagre budget he would have been working with, this is an incredible feat. But it’s not just in terms of finances that they’ve overachieved.
Remarkably, Treaty United overdelivered on their xP by 12 points. Their xP tally of 30 points, rather than the 42 they secured, would have seen them finish down in seventh position.
To put this into context, the second biggest points surplus was Shelbourne’s total of four. Clearly Barrett’s men know how to win games even when they are second best, a fantastic trait to have when heading into a play-off situation.
On the complete opposite side of the coin are Colin Healy’s Cork City, whose real points tally compared to their xP also showed a difference of 12, but this time in the negative column.
Again, it’s hard to know just how such a substantial difference between real points and xP came about, but had they achieved their xP total of 45 points, they would have finished comfortably in the play-off spots in third.
How do you interpret this stat if you’re Healy? He may look at it as an indicator that his young side lacked the guile to get the results that their performances warranted.
But it also shows that with a few small adjustments they have the potential to be much closer to the top of next season’s table.
Cronin’s Bray-celona are the pass masters
Gary Cronin’s Bray are the league’s best side when it comes to keeping the ball. Their averages of 388 passes and 57% possession puts them top of both tables.
These stats are in no small part down to their midfield maestro Conor Clifford. The former Chelsea underage star boasts the division’s best individual passing numbers, averaging 52 per game.
He is joined in the top five by two of his team-mates, right-back Mark Byrne and left-back Dylan Barnett, both of whom averaged 46 passes per game.
Close behind them in second place in the passing stats tables are Andy Meyler’s UCD, who averaged 385 passes and 54% possession per game.
Their centre midfield pairing of Jack Keaney and Sean Brennan are second and third in the individual passing stats table, averaging 49 and 48 passes respectively.
No ball, no problem
While Bray and UCD have passed their way into the play-offs, the two sides they will face have taken a very different approach.
Despite finishing second in the table, Galway United have averaged just 267 passes and 48% possession per game, placing them in eighth position on both tables.
Treaty United have seen even less of the ball. Their average of 265 passes puts them ninth in that table while their 43% possession is the lowest in the division.
What this shows is that there’s more than one way to be successful in this division. The contrasting styles of play between the play-off sides should make for intriguing tactical battles.
Left-footers delivering the assists
Galway United’s Conor McCormack and UCD’s Paul Doyle, who sit joint top of the assists chart on eight each, will look to provide the chances for their sides in the play-offs.
Treaty United’s threat will come from Marc Ludden. He and Shelbourne’s Kevin O’Connor complete the top four with six assists apiece.
Right-backs in the division have certainly been kept busy with Doyle, Ludden and O’Connor all operating down the left-hand side for their respective sides this season.
Shels out in front on the key metrics
How do you win a league title? Simple, make sure you take the most shots and concede the least.
That’s what Shelbourne have done this season, taking an average of 15 shots per game and allowing their opponents just eight. This has them top of both charts.
Galway United sit second on both fronts, taking 12 shots per game and conceding nine. Cork City again show that it’s been a season of what might have been, sitting in impressive third positions on both tables.
Keating shoots on sight, but it’s Whelan who’s clinical
Galway United’s Ruairi Keating is well out in front for shots attempted this season. His 82 efforts puts him eight clear of Shelbourne’s Michael O’Connor in second place. Bray Wanderers Brandon Kavanagh sits in third on 69 attempts.
But it was UCD’s Colm Whelan, who believed in quality over quantity, finishing the regular season as the division’s top scorer. He hit the target with 60% of his efforts, almost double the efficiency of Keating, O’Connor or Kavanagh.
Only Shelbourne’s Ryan Brennan (49%) and Whelan’s UCD team-mate Liam Kerrigan (45%) got anywhere close to Whelan’s impressive accuracy.
Watch out for goals in ‘Caulfield time’
They say you have to play until the final whistle and John Caulfield’s Galway United side certainly don’t let him down on that front.
Their tally of 14 goals from the 76th minute on puts them well clear of any other side in the division for late goals and represents almost 40% of their total goals for the season.
Nobody will be leaving Eamonn Deacy Park early during the play-offs.
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